2 things could drive bitcoin to $500,000 during Trump's term, a top crypto analyst says

• Bitcoin could hit $500,000 by the end of Trump's second term, Standard Chartered estimates.
• The token will rise amid better investor access and lower volatility.
• Falling bond yields are a positive sign for bitcoin in the near-term.

Bitcoin's record-setting rally will push the crypto to a $500,000 price tag by the end of 2028, according to Standard Chartered.

There are two reasons behind the bank's sky-high forecast: better access for investors and lower volatility.

In a Wednesday note, analyst Geoff Kendrick outlined that these two factors will increase bitcoin's price by around $100,000 each year, before gains plateau in 2029. The $500,000 outlook implies a 407% increase from the token's current price.

"Although the near-term remains choppy for Bitcoin, the long-term is becoming clearer by the day," the global head of digital assets research wrote in attached commentary. "Access is improving under the Trump administration. Institutional inflows will continue to gather pace. And vol will gradually come lower as the quality of flows improves and other infrastructure (eg. options markets) expand."

The token's reputation as a safe haven and inflation hedge is making it popular among traditional investors and cementing its role on Wall Street, Kendrick said, pointing to last year's introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs, which have netted $39 billion in inflows so far.

With access likely to keep improving amid the Trump administration's crypto-friendly efforts, the maturing ETF market can draw parallels from the success of 2004's gold exchange-traded products.

"US gold prices rose 4.3x as the ETP market matured from November 2004 through September 2011. We think a similar increase in BTC ETFs is likely as that market matures, which we expect will happen over a much shorter two-year period than the seven-year timeframe for gold ETPs," Kendrick wrote, citing that this factor drive bitcoin to $200,000 by the end of 2025.

Gold ETPs reveal one more lesson for the nascent bitcoin market: the asset's volatility is set to ease.

As was the case with the precious metal, bitcoin's volatility should improve as the ETFs provide the market with more stable flows. Kendrick also expects the build-out of other market functions, such as options trading, would introduce lower volatility levels with time.

"Indeed, in terms of the mix of flows, the entire digital assets market — including Bitcoin — is undeveloped relative to traditional financial markets. This should change over time, allowing vol to move lower," he said.

Over the next two to three years, bitcoin's three-month at-the-market volatility should fall from its current 55% spot level to 45%. Lower volatility would incentivize investors to increase portfolio allocations to the cryptocurrency, supporting Kendrick's price target.

To be sure, disappointment around a lack of bitcoin policy updates in January disrupted the rally's momentum, but Kendrick suggested that a positive signal seems to have finally flashed for the market.

On Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.50%, possibly signaling that investors are growing nervous about US growth amid Trump's recent tariff clash — a macro-positive for bitcoin.

"The point here is that price action (lower back-end yields) is telling me that even if we get more tariffs (EU or higher China tariffs for example) the growth fear narrative will win. So either no more tariff issues, and so inflation expectations can come lower, or more tariffs and more growth fear. Win-win," Kendrick wrote in separate commentary."