Avalanche Journal: Nathan MacKinnon has been unlucky during his MVP encore

The Colorado Avalanche’s offensive attack can look like a symphony of puck and player movement when it’s really clicking.

Colorado’s star-studded top line and defense pairing zipped the puck around early in the second period during a 4-0 dismantling of the New Jersey Devils at Prudential Center. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar played catch as they moved around the offensive zone.

Eventually, Makar took the puck into the right circle and sent it back to MacKinnon in the left circle, for what looked like a sure goal after the two dynamos had deftly manipulated the space and the defenders trying to chase them.

MacKinnon wound up and rifled a one-timer toward the target. The goalie was out of position. The Avs were headed for a three-goal lead. And then … a loud PING resonated throughout The Rock.

It was an all too familiar sound for MacKinnon this season.

“I guess unlucky is a word, but the process has been really good,” MacKinnon said.

MacKinnon’s shot rang off the goalpost behind Devils goalie Jake Allen. The official scorers oddly credited Allen with a save on the play, so it technically wasn’t another post hit by MacKinnon this season.

It was another snapshot of one weird wrinkle in MacKinnon’s encore season after earning the Hart Trophy as league MVP for the first time in his career a year ago. MacKinnon woke up Saturday in the pole position for another major award he’s never won — the Art Ross Trophy — as the league’s leading scorer.

So the league leader in points has also been … unlucky? Yep, and that could be a problem for opposing defenses as this season progresses.

“I think the thing that’s crazy is he is still making so many plays,” Avs center Casey Mittelstadt said. “I feel like every time he gets the puck, at the very least it is a positive play. For a guy like me watching that, it’s just crazy and very impressive. He’s one of the best passers in the world, so if he’s not scoring he’s still going to be making plays.”

MacKinnon had 47 points in his first 31 games, but he has also scored only 11 times on 123 shots on goal. That’s a shooting percentage of 8.9%.

Among the top 50 forwards in points, only three have a shooting percentage in the single digits — MacKinnon (first in points), Sidney Crosby (25th) and David Pastrnak (35th). MacKinnon’s teammate Mikko Rantanen is third among forwards in points and is shooting 20.5%.

If we just look at the other nine guys in the top 10 — all great players, including superstars like Rantanen, Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov and Leon Draisaitl — they have combined for 140 goals on 762 shots. That’s a combined shooting percentage of 18.37%.

MacKinnon has never been someone who converts that many of his shots on his goal, but 8.9% would be his worst since the 2016-17 season. Since the start of the 2017-18 season, MacKinnon is third in the NHL in points behind McDavid and Draisaitl, and his shooting percentage from 2017-24 was 11.6%.

If MacKinnon was just shooting at his average over the past six seasons, he’d have three more goals (14).

“I think it’s a good sign of things to come for me with putting the puck in the back of the net,” Avs coach Jared Bednar said. “I think there have been some opportunities that I think he can shoot the puck a little bit more. He’s also always been one of the league leaders in shots.”

MacKinnon was not shooting as much earlier in this season. He led the league with 405 shots on goal last season, the third time he’s done that. That’s 4.94 shots per game.

He’s at 123 shots on goal through 31 games — that’s second in the league and 3.97 per contest. The reigning MVP had just seven shots on goal during a five-game stretch at one point, but he’s responded to that with 44 in his past nine contests — that’s 5.44 per.

“I think Nate’s doing a great job of understanding that teams have always keyed on Nate, but now you’re seeing some tight coverage, some duplication and when that happens you probably don’t have the opportunity to shoot it,” Bednar said. “You’ve probably got to dish it to someone who is open and Nate’s doing a nice job of that.

“You’ve got to take what the other team gives you. The reality is he’s still doing that. When you’re creating scoring chances on a night-to-night basis, you’re doing the right things. It’s not easy to create a quality scoring chance in this league, so as long as he’s doing that, I know it’s going to come around.”

MacKinnon has officially hit the post six times this season, though the one against the Devils didn’t count. One of them was a shot at the empty net in Detroit, the night before he banged one off the post in New Jersey.

Cole Caufield leads the NHL with eight, while Rantanen is among the three players with seven. Cale Makar has hit the post three times and the crossbar three times. So that’s 19 shots off the iron for Colorado’s three offensive superstars … and MacKinnon could have a few more assists had some of the Rantanen and Makar attempts found the mark.

MacKinnon, as usual, remains focused on the bigger picture. He didn’t see a zero-point night against the Devils, which could have included at least one, if not more.

“We were matched up against a Selke nominee like (Nico) Hischier and we played really well against that line,” MacKinnon said. “We didn’t really give up anything. I think our process has been really good. I can’t see it staying out forever.”

MacKinnon spent 8:55 on the ice at 5-on-5 against Hischier. The Avs had eight of the night shot attempts and 100% of the expected goals. Toss in his work against Jack Hughes’ line, and it was 13:34 against one of the top 1-2 center punches in the league.

The end result — 19 shot attempts for, six against.

If MacKinnon’s shooting percentage creeps upward toward his recent average, or if others around him improve their finishing, the 2023-24 MVP is going to have a real chance to be the 2024-25 scoring champion.

“I mean, they are going to start going in,” Mittelstadt said. “It’s Nathan MacKinnon. They’re going in for sure.”

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