Avalanche Journal: What are the fatal flaws that could fell the West’s top contenders?

It’s barely a debate at this point: The West is best, again, in the NHL.

The Western Conference’s superiority has come into greater focus this month. Colorado, Dallas and Edmonton all bolstered contending rosters with big moves before the trade deadline. In contrast, two of the contenders in the East — Carolina (trading away Mikko Rantanen) and New Jersey (injuries) — are not nearly as scary.

There’s also better depth in the middle: Four teams in the West grappling for the final playoff spot might all be better than the collection of mediocre teams amid a pillow fight for the last dance card in the East. There are five great teams in the West, and two more that could be frisky.

While there are some loaded teams and the potential for titanic heavyweight postseason fights, no team in either conference looks like a juggernaut similar to the Avalanche in 2022 or the best Lightning and Penguins teams before them. With that in mind, what are some potential fatal flaws that could send the best clubs in the West home earlier than they’d like?

Let’s go in order of the standings from Saturday morning:

1. Winnipeg Jets (48-18-4, 100 points)

The Jets tied for first in fewest goals allowed last year and are heading for another first this season. What’s different? They’ve soared from 16th in goals for per game to third. Connor Hellebuyck is even better this season. Gabe Vilardi has taken a big step forward. They’re deep, they have a top-5 defenseman and they have the best goalie.

Fatal flaw: Winnipeg’s underlying numbers at 5-on-5 have improved as the season progressed, but overall a 51.7 expected goals-for percentage (xGF%) isn’t a significant upgrade from 51.3% last year. Eight of the top nine forwards have a higher shooting percentage this season than last year. The team also leads the NHL in shooting percentage on the power play.

Colorado also exposed a lack of overall foot speed from Winnipeg’s defense corps last year, and the new guy is … 35-year-old Luke Schenn. Maybe a better showing from Hellebuyck and better adjustments from a new coaching staff will help offset the issues if the shooters go cold for a week, or the defense corps finds itself getting overwhelmed again. But either could also be a big problem.

2. Dallas Stars (43-21-4, 90 points)

If everyone is healthy, there’s a strong argument that this is the best roster, top-to-bottom, in the league. Cale Makar is the best defenseman and forms the best top two with Devon Toews, but Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell have a good case for being the best top three. Going from a nice young player (Logan Stankoven) to one of the best wings in the league (Rantanen) makes the Stars even scarier.

Fatal flaw: The “if” in that first sentence is doing a lot of work. Dallas coach Pete DeBoer said earlier this week that it’s possible Heiskanen won’t be available to start the playoffs. Tyler Seguin is expected to be back, but he’s played 19 games this season because of a hip injury. Those are two important players. Heiskanen is a top-5 defenseman in the league. That defense corps really struggled for much of the game against the new-look Avs a week ago. People should not jump to “no Heiskanen, no chance” … but not having him, or a less-than-100 percent Seguin, could be a big issue in a huge first-round series.

3. Vegas Golden Knights (40-20-8, 88 points)

The normally splashy Knights were relatively quiet at the trade deadline, though scooping up Brandon Saad after his contract was terminated in St. Louis and trading for Reilly Smith did help address the most obvious need (wing depth). Shea Theodore got hurt at the 4 Nations tournament, but he’s back at practice and should be fine by the playoffs.

Fatal flaw: Um, well … the penalty kill? One takeaway from this exercise: There probably isn’t enough buzz about Vegas. This team is strong everywhere. Not best in the league, but lurking just below that in a lot of categories. So maybe the PK, which ranks 23rd, gets torched by Edmonton in the second round? Adin Hill’s numbers are also just good, not great, in net. But the guy is 12-6 with a .932 save percentage in the playoffs.

4. Colorado Avalanche (42-25-3, 87 points)

After all the injuries and all the trades, the Avs finally have (nearly) all of their ammunition available, and look like a club that can win 16 playoff games again. This is probably the second- or third-best group of centers in the NHL. The new goalies have been great. Maybe the most underrated part is the team defense and shot/scoring chance suppression. Colorado is known for all the goals and the pretty plays, but this group has suffocated each of the past four playoff teams it’s faced.

Fatal flaw: Neither goalie has started a Stanley Cup Playoff game. We just don’t know how that’s going to go. Ryan Lindgren and Erik Johnson have helped improve the defense corps, but it’s still pretty thin compared to other contenders, and Josh Manson’s awful injury luck this season could exacerbate that.

5. Edmonton Oilers (40-24-5, 85 points)

This team got within one goal of winning the Cup and then improved the roster (on paper) in the offseason. While Avs fans aren’t going to enjoy seeing Rantanen in the first round this season (or in the first two rounds in coming seasons), had he actually landed in Edmonton it might have been a wrap in the West.

Fatal flaw: If St. Louis doesn’t get in, Stuart Skinner is the only starting goalie among the eight playoff teams in the West with a negative goals saved above expected. He won 14 times for them in the postseason last year, but when he’s off, he can be way off. Also, some of the forward depth looks better on paper than in practice this season. But the most likely issue remains Skinner.

6. Los Angeles Kings (37-21-9, 83 points)

This is a nice, solid team. Darcy Kuemper is having a big bounce-back season. A few of the young guys have made some strides. If they can just not face the Oil … oh no.

Fatal flaw: Not again. Unless Vegas hits a funk, the Kings and Oilers will play for the fourth consecutive season in the first round. Los Angeles has won three, then two, then one in the past three. Maybe it’s just too hard to beat a team four years in a row. Maybe Skinner blows up and Kuemper carries them. Doesn’t seem like a great bet, though.

7. Minnesota Wild (39-25-5, 83 points)

The Wild have had Avalanche-level injury issues during the second half of the year, but they still look set to finish as the first wild card and likely get Vegas in the first round. Marc-Andre Fleury is firmly the backup on this team, but imagine if he has to play against the Knights?

Fatal flaw: The injuries. Or if everyone does get back in time, it’s still a team that’s a year away from being a real contender. When the general manager is pretty quiet at the deadline and says, “our time will come” … yeah. Encouraging year, and look out for the Wild this offseason.

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