Broncos begin stretch run with matchup vs. Indy that will swing playoff odds substantially: “I just feel like this team is ready”

The Broncos’ bye week is over.

The stretch run has arrived.

Meaningful December football is back on the Front Range in a big way.

The Broncos come off their rest week squarely in the AFC playoff mix and facing perhaps their most impactful regular-season game since 2016 when they host Indianapolis on Sunday afternoon.

A quick reset: Denver is tied with Baltimore and the Los Angeles Chargers at 8-5 heading into the final four weeks. Sean Payton’s team has a loss on its books to each of those teams already and faces the Chargers again a week from Thursday in Los Angeles.

Because of those losses, the Broncos are in the No. 7 slot currently. And though they’re two games clear in the loss column of the Colts and Miami (each 6-7), this weekend sets up major ramifications.

The Dolphins have been rolling, reeling off four wins in their past five thanks to a resurgent offense and a red-hot Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. They may need to win their final four to make it, which is a tall task but not impossible.

The Colts, meanwhile, have Denver’s more immediate attention. The head-to-head matchup Sunday essentially counts double.

“This is as late of a bye that I’ve been a part of, and yet I think it fell at a good time,” Payton said Monday. “We have a good month of football ahead of us here that’s going to be — obviously all of those games are going to be important.

“You want to be as healthy as possible and as rested as possible, but it starts with the game this week at home.”

Both Indy and Denver are coming off their bye weeks into the stretch run.

“That’s what you work for is games like this. Games that matter,” Denver running back Jaleel McLaughlin said Monday. “I just feel like this team is ready. That’ll be on display for sure.”

The New York Times’ playoff probability model shows just how critical the matchup is.

Here are three sets of odds according to the simulation.

Current playoff chances: Broncos 70%, Colts 26%

If Denver wins Sunday: Broncos 87%, Colts 8%

If Denver loses Sunday: Broncos 39%, Colts 68%

So, it’s not a true elimination game for Denver, but the team’s playoff fortunes will either be crystalized or get murky in a hurry depending on the outcome.

“For us, we’ve just been handling every game and focusing on that week,” Broncos defensive lineman Zach Allen said. “We’ve got a really good opponent this week, so we’ve got to make sure we’re prepared. Obviously coming off the bye week, the bodies are feeling good. I know they just came off their bye week. It will be a good matchup, and we’re really excited about just trying to get our next win.”

After Sunday, the Broncos have tough back-to-back road games at the Chargers and Cincinnati (Dec. 28 or 29) before finishing at home against Kansas City.

That leaves multiple paths to 10 wins, but none more straightforward than getting No. 9 against the Colts.

“I know what this team is capable of, and it’s great for that to be on display with wins,” McLaughlin said. “I just think it’s expected. We’re going to keep working hard, take it one game at a time and we’re focused on Indy this week. It should be a great game. It’s fun. It’s great. We’ve got a great group.”

Reynolds did “a great job.” Payton on Monday spoke for the first time since the team waived veteran receiver Josh Reynolds almost a week ago.

Reynolds played in the first five games for Denver this season but broke his finger and needed surgery after a touchdown grab against Las Vegas in October.

“From a roster management standpoint with Josh, it just became a numbers game,” Payton said. “He’s done a great job. We would have liked to have been able to keep him, but as guys got healthy and came back from injured reserve, we had to have space.

“Some of the younger guys have been playing well. I wish him the best. He’s one of those guys that helped us get to where we’re at right now.”

While on injured reserve, he sustained “minor” injuries when shot twice in what the Denver district attorney’s office called a coordinated attack against him and two others.

Reynolds was claimed by Jacksonville on Wednesday but did not play in the Jaguars’ win Sunday against Tennessee.

Broncos work out CB. The Broncos worked out veteran cornerback Jerry Jacobs on Monday, a source confirmed to The Post.

Jacobs, 27, played 40 games for Detroit between 2021 and ’23. He spent part of training camp with the Los Angeles Rams but was waived injured due to a groin issue in August. He hasn’t signed with a team since but has been healthy and working out for teams in recent weeks.

Denver has a practice squad spot open after losing ILB Kwon Alexander to Detroit late last month.

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