Broncos Journal: A win against Colts is necessary, but Denver could use help from Texans to strengthen postseason chances

The Broncos are masters of their own playoff fate.

Denver (8-5) sits in the seventh seed of the AFC standings, and if it defeats the Colts at home on Sunday, the team will have an 89% chance of making the postseason for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50, according to the New York Times playoff simulator. However, the Broncos’ playoff odds drop down to 42% with a loss.

The Broncos’ plan is simple: Keep winning and they will be playing football in mid-January. At the same time, Denver’s odds could get even better with help from a few other teams on Sunday.

Here are a few games to monitor.

Dolphins at Texans

If the Texans win: The Broncos would just need to knock off the Colts and their playoff odds increase to 93%. However, if Denver loses and Houston beats Miami, the team’s postseason chances would sit at 45%.

If the Dolphins win: Of all the results to combine with a Broncos win on Sunday, this is the worst. Denver’s postseason chances will stand at 81% with a victory, while a Denver loss combined with a Dolphins win in Houston would drop the Broncos’ playoff hopes to 40%.

Note: Miami’s matchup against the Texans should be interesting. At 8-5, Houston is in first place in a terrible AFC South and has won two of its last three games. Even though the Texans are 2.5-point favorites, the Dolphins (6-7) have won four of their last five and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has played at a high level. Since returning from a concussion in Week 8, Tagovailoa has thrown for 1,973 yards, 15 touchdowns and an interception with a completion percentage of 76%.

Following the Dolphins’ trip to Houston, they will face the 49ers, Browns and Jets. Miami has a chance to win out, making it even more important for the Broncos to take care of business against the Colts.

Bengals at Titans

If the Bengals win: The Broncos will have an 85% chance of making the playoffs as long as they beat Indianapolis. A Bengals win and a Denver loss to the Colts will drop the Broncos’ odds to 45%.

If the Titans win: Victories from the Titans and Broncos would increase Denver’s postseason odds to 90%. A Denver loss would give it a 46% chance of playing in the postseason.

Note: The Titans have dropped two straight since defeating Houston in Week 12, with the most recent setback a 10-6 loss to the Jaguars. The Bengals (5-8) have a 2% chance of making the playoffs. Even if they win their remaining games, the New York Times playoff simulator only gives them a 12% chance of earning a playoff berth. Tennessee enters Sunday’s matchup allowing the fewest passing yards in the league (175.5 per game). Despite the Bengals’ struggles, quarterback Joe Burrow has played at an MVP level, throwing for 3,706 yards, 33 touchdowns and six interceptions.

The race for fifth place

The fifth seed is not completely out of the question for Denver. The Broncos, Chargers and Ravens sport identical 8-5 records. However, Los Angeles and Baltimore defeated Denver earlier in the season, so the Broncos will need some help in order to grab the fifth spot in the AFC.

The Chargers will take on the Buccaneers, who have won three straight to get back over .500. However, Tampa Bay’s victories have come against the Giants, Panthers and Raiders. Los Angeles, a three-point favorite, has dropped two of its last three. The Chargers have been solid defensively, allowing 16 points in the past two weeks. Quarterback Justin Herbert (ankle) will play after sustaining an injury in Week 14’s loss to the Chiefs.

Denver might not get support from the Giants, who are 16.5-point underdogs against Baltimore. However, the Ravens’ schedule gets tougher the following two weeks with matchups against Pittsburgh and Houston.

Sutton, McLaughlin could be useful in fantasy football playoffs

With fantasy football leagues across the country entering the playoffs this weekend, a fortuitous waiver wire addition or lineup choice could swing more than a few championships over the next three weeks.

The Broncos have a pair of players who could provide value to someone’s lineup. One (WR Courtland Sutton) is on most fantasy rosters already and should probably be plug-and-play at this point. Another (running back Jaleel McLaughlin) is sitting out there for managers looking for a late-season spark with an opportune matchup on the horizon.

Sutton recorded six catches for 102 yards against the Browns, marking the third time this season with at least 100 yards. Since Week 8, he has collected 42 catches for 569 yards and averaged 94.8 yards per contest. He is tied for seventh in receptions and tied for 11th in targets during that span.

McLaughlin has had the hot hand out of Denver’s running back room. He has totaled 21 carries for 128 yards over the last two games. Against Cleveland, he had 14 carries for 84 yards. Denver has had success against weak run defenses this year, and the Colts have given up the second-most rushing yards in the league (147). McLaughlin has a good chance to build on his strong play.

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