Broncos Journal: Should Denver take Omarion Hampton or TreVeyon Henderson at No. 20?

By factual definition, in his decade-plus tenure in the NFL, George Paton has never taken a running back in the first round of an NFL draft. Factual definition. By sheer value, though, Sean Payton would disagree.

“George took a first-round back in the early second that everyone in the league — I mean, that was a good pick,” Payton remarked at the Broncos’ pre-draft presser on Thursday. “That was a first-round back.”

That good pick was back in 2021, when Paton and the Broncos plucked Javonte Williams out of North Carolina. The vision was there: Williams was a power back who could also flash out of the backfield, authoring a standout rookie year. But Williams’ career was derailed by an ACL tear in 2022, and he walked away to the Dallas Cowboys in last month’s free agency without checking back on another offer from Denver.

Four years later, though, Paton can essentially draft Williams all over again.

“You know what’s really interesting to me?” NFL draft analyst Charles Davis said in a conversation with The Denver Post. “… Omarion Hampton might be Javonte Williams pre-knee injury.”

Indeed, the profiles are eerily similar. Hampton, the Broncos’ most popular mock-draft fit at pick No. 20 for a solid two months, is listed at 220 pounds; Williams is listed at 220 pounds. Hampton ran for 15 touchdowns his final year at North Carolina; Williams ran for 19. Hampton profiles as one of only a select few bona-fide three-down backs in this draft; Williams is solid in pass-pro and as a pass-catcher.

As the Broncos continue to be linked to a back at that first-round slot, though, Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson has risen in stock as a widely popular and widely different option in recent weeks, punctuated by a top-30 visit to Denver on Wednesday. While Hampton is a more easily projectable workhorse, Henderson is more of a tempo-changer who can bounce outside and thrive on passing downs. One NFL RBs coach, asked which he had graded higher, told The Post in a text Henderson and Hampton had “two different running styles” and were “not comparable.”

That’s no fun. Let’s compare them anyway!

At sheer face value, a majority of evaluators have Hampton as the second-best back in the draft. ESPN analyst Matt Miller told The Post he had a 90 grade on Hampton and an 86 on Henderson, mainly because he felt Hampton was better suited as an “every-down back.” Davis largely agreed. NFL Network’s Bucky Brooks said there was a “separation” between the two, and that there’s a “divide” in this RB class after a first tier of Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty and Hampton. In simple terms, then, Hampton is widely viewed as the better prospect.

For the Broncos’ system and interests, though, Henderson might well be the better fit.

“I think if you were gonna say, like, ‘We’re gonna be an outside-the-box running team, and we’re gonna get our running back 50 catches’ … then Henderson would be the player I would prefer,” Miller said.

If the Broncos are looking for more of a — hard swallow — Joker-style back, even after the signing of Evan Engram, Henderson carries dynamic receiving upside in space. And his blocking is one of his strongest selling points. Miller gushed over Henderson’s abilities in pass-protection as a fearless back who “pops guys without problem.”

“Obviously, we’re looking at the runner, the pass receiving skills,” Paton said Thursday, discussing the projectability of college backs as blockers. “Is he a three-down back, change of pace like Sean talked about? Does he have the traits to develop as a pass protector? That’s what we dig into, our coaches dig into.”

There’s another key variable here: The Broncos may not actually be targeting a legit every-down back. Payton, both historically and expressively, prefers a committee in his backfield, and expressed faith in a returning group of Audric Estime, Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie at his presser at the NFL combine.

Estime is the most interesting name here — a 227-pound bowling ball who Denver plucked in the fifth round last year and who showed flashes in his rookie season. After the Broncos relegated him inactive for their wild-card loss to the Bills, a source with knowledge of the situation said the move was understood “by all parties involved,” and that the coaching staff has had multiple conversations in the offseason with Estime’s camp where they’ve communicated that they consider him “a piece of the long-term puzzle” at running back.

If, indeed, the Broncos plan on getting Estime consistent touches in 2024, the fit with Hampton would be clunky. Henderson, by contrast, would be a natural complement as an outside threat to Estime’s between-the-tackles bruising.

“I think that’s ideal,” Miller said of that potential two-back tandem in Denver.

At the same time, opinions are split on Henderson’s viability at No. 20, with Miller saying he wouldn’t swing on a first-round back outside of Jeanty or Hampton because of the depth of RBs in this class. If Denver still wants more of a complementary, scat-back-type, Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson or Texas’s Jaydon Blue could be viable Day 2 options.

“There’s a lot of runners in this draft, certainly … some of ‘em are physical, downhill runners, some of ‘em are guys that can take a misdirection, scissors-type run, and go the other direction with it,” Payton said Thursday, in a quote that could accurately sum up the Hampton-vs-Henderson debate.

“And so, it just depends on what you’re looking for.”

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