Broncos Mailbag: Should Denver try to trade back from No. 20 in next month’s draft?

Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.

We addressed a lot of holes during free agency. What do you think we target in the first round now?

I know we still need a running back and some more weapons for Bo Nix, but I’d love to see us go best-player-available. Improve our corners? Another interior lineman on defense? Another edge rusher?

What do you think? What should Denver do?

— Mike, Denver

Hey Mike, thanks for writing in and getting us going this week. Great question. You’re right that Denver still needs a running back, but it’s a deep class at that position. If the Broncos think a guy or two — let’s assume Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty is off the board but North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton and the rest are still available — are a cut above the rest, then they’ll entertain taking one early.

Same goes for tight end. It’s a deep draft, but if there’s one Denver thinks can be special, it won’t hesitate.

Otherwise, the simplest way to handle the first round in particular is to take the best possible player you can. A guy who is not easy to find on the market.

Could that be a defensive lineman? This draft has a bunch that will come off the board in the first 40 or so picks. A defender at a different position? The Broncos addressed those needs in free agency, but if you think Alabama linebacker Jihaad Campbell or South Carolina safety Nick Emmanwori transforms your defense, then go for it? There’s not a lot of consensus about the wide receiver class this year, but there are a handful of different body types and if the Broncos think one of them is a No. 1, that’s a pick that could pay dividends well into the future.

Bottom line: It’s easy to look at the pool of Jeanty, Hampton and tight ends Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren and say, “Yeah, any one of those will do.” But the Broncos have the flexibility to go another direction if they want or if those guys are all off the board.

With the draft so deep at tight end and running back, why don’t we trade back, pick up an extra second- or third-round pick, and fill more needs?

— Moby Dick, Littleton

That’s the dream, Ahab. Or at least that’s what general manager George Paton would probably say. We’ve seen this play out each of the past two drafts, but we know Paton and Payton are wired differently when it comes to the draft. Paton likes to trade down and collect picks. Payton likes to target a player and go get him.

The interesting thing about No. 20 is how the Broncos feel about the overall quality at the top of the board. If there’s a guy who they have graded as a true first-round talent still sitting there, they’ll almost assuredly just grab him. If you get into the bell curve where the top-shelf talent is gone and you’re in a clump of, let’s say, 15-20 guys who have similar grades, then of course you’d love to move back, gain extra capital and still be in position to get one of those guys.

The trick is that it takes two to tango. If the teams behind Denver feel the same way about the way the board stacks up around No. 20, then it could end up being difficult to find a partner who wants to come up. Of course, it just takes one team and one player for somebody to make a deal.

Then the next question is return. The way Payton has talked about draft trades during his time in Denver, it seems as though he uses something approaching the Jimmy Johnson model for valuing draft picks.

Usually a team trading up in the first round is going to pay a bit of a premium, but if you just took the straight pick values, it looks as though Denver would have to trade back a considerable way to get a second-rounder in return.

For example, the Jimmy Johnson model values No. 20 at 850 points. Philadelphia’s No. 32 (590) and No. 64 (270) total up to 860. Minnesota’s first (No. 24, 740 points) and third (No. 97, 112) come out to 852.

There’s a lot of ways to balance out draft deals, but it takes both sides wanting to do so.

To your overarching point, though, given the apparent depth of this draft at running back, tight end and on the defensive line in particular, trading down should have some allure to the Broncos depending on how the board falls.

Are we really sure the defense is that good? It pretty much got lit up by every decent QB it played last year. I’ve never thought much of Vance Joseph, and I think all the sacks overshadow the fact they couldn’t get off the field on third downs against any non-bottom-feeder QB. Linebacker was a problem, for sure, especially in coverage. Doesn’t this unit need some upgrading at LB, safety and defensive coordinator?

— David, Charlotte

Hey David, not sure the league would agree with your assessment of the Broncos defense or their coordinator. But, to your point, we wrote last week about how the upgrades Denver made in free agency with ILB Dre Greenlaw and S Talanoa Hufanga are because of all those elite quarterbacks in the AFC. It’s also fair to say the Broncos’ defense struggled more down the stretch of the regular season than it did early on.

I have a hard time saying, well, the Broncos struggled against Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, so they’re actually not good. Those guys are incredible players. The challenge of being in the AFC these days, though, is that it’s not just one or two guys. It’s Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud and more. The Raiders just finished a year in which they started Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder and now will roll with Geno Smith. He’s not a superstar, but he’s far better than what they’ve deployed the past couple of years.

In 2024, the Denver defense finished third in scoring defense, seventh in total defense, second in net passing yards allowed, third in rushing yards allowed, first in sacks, first in pressures, third in pressure rate, first in points per drive allowed, third in red zone touchdown percentage allowed and 11th (oh, the humanity!) in third down conversion rate allowed. They weren’t perfect, especially against super-talented quarterbacks, but they were darn good. Now they’ve made attempts at getting even better to fight with the future Hall of Famers who tend to dot the playoff field in the AFC.

Hey Parker, first, I love reading all your Broncos coverage. Your writing style really conveys that the people you’re covering are people, and that comes through in your articles. I appreciate all your hard work — you’re the best Broncos beat writer the Post has had in a long time and I hope they’re treating you well!

You wrote the other day that (Evan) Rothstein was hired to the new position of director of game management. That seems like something that most head coaches should have, but one that an old-school guy like Payton might not be used to. 1. Do you know if this was mostly Payton’s idea, or was this maybe a suggestion from above as some kind of best practice that other teams do? And 2. What exactly does a director of game management do during the games? Does he just tap the head coach on the shoulder and shake his head when he tries to punt on fourth-and-2? Tell him when to take timeouts?

Thanks!

— Geoffrey, Maryville, Mo.

Hey Geoffrey, terrific question. And I don’t say that only because of your far-too-kind note. Just to put this up front: We haven’t talked with Payton since he made that hire, so I can’t say specifically why he did it or what he is hoping to get out of the role. Looking forward to asking him about that next time we talk with him because it’s an interesting topic.

In general, these types of roles help a coach stay a couple of steps ahead of what’s happening on the field. It’s not so much getting on the headset when it’s fourth-and-2 and saying “go for it,” but rather on second-and-10 from the plus-46 telling the coach that the data says to go for it on fourth-and-4 or less, punt on fourth-and-7 of more and that the middle is feel. Then if you’re in third-and-8 as the coach, you proactively have a better idea of how you want to approach that call. Maybe it enables a run call because you know the defense will be soft and you know you’re going for it if you get more than three yards. Or maybe you take a shot on third-and-3 because you set something up earlier in the game. Or maybe, like when the Broncos got head-scratchingly aggressive late in the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 17, it’s an extra voice saying that getting to halftime right here if we don’t get a chunk on first down is just fine. Timeout usage, rule interpretations, challenge decisions, staying ahead of the game calling plays and more can all be part of the game management conversation.

But that’s all just general stuff. One thing we know about Payton: If he’s adding something, he’s got a reason for it.

Hello Parker! With the hiring of Pete Carroll, every head coach in the AFC West has now either won a Super Bowl, a college national championship or both. Between the four of them they have a combined 10 trips to the Super Bowl, winning five. Has another division ever been so loaded at coaches?

— Yoann, Beine-Nauroy, France

Hey Yoann, can’t say I know off the top of my head the list of the most stacked coaching divisions of all time. I suppose in 1990, the NFC East featured Jimmy Johnson in Dallas, Bill Parcells with the New York Giants, Joe Gibbs in Washington and Buddy Ryan coaching Philadelphia. That’s three Hall of Famers and Ryan as the runt of the litter with a mere two Super Bowl championships as an assistant coach. I’m sure there are other challengers, too, but make no mistake about it: The AFC West these days ain’t for the faint of heart. As noted above, now the quarterbacks are Mahomes, Herbert, Smith and Nix.

The Raiders will almost universally be picked to finish last in 2025, but it seems they’ve done a nice job steadying the ship this offseason by hiring Carroll and general manager John Spytek, landing a veteran quarterback and convincing Maxx Crosby to sign an extension. Long way to go, but that’s not a bad base to build from.

There will be very few pushover games in the division for the foreseeable future.

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