Broncos Mailbag: Trade up? Move down? Working through several NFL draft scenarios.

Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.

How likely do you think the Broncos will trade out of the No. 20 spot? I’m in the best-player-available camp after the pickups this offseason. If someone wants to give us several picks to move down, I think we have to jump on it. I’d love to have another third-rounder if that means we drop down to the bottom of the first or into the second round. What do you think?

— Mike, Denver

Hey Mike, thanks for writing in and for getting us going this week. The draft is, at long last, almost here. Next week, we settle in for three days that promise to be fascinating. The Broncos are set at quarterback, but this is a critical draft nonetheless — really, they all are.

Denver’s got its first four picks still in hand, the first time that’s been the case since 2021, George Paton’s first draft as the general manager. You’ll remember that class started out with Pat Surtain II, Javonte Williams, Quinn Meinerz and Baron Browning and finished with Jonathon Cooper in the seventh round. Two All-Pros, a cornerstone edge rusher and two now-departed regular starters beset by injury. Not too shabby.

Put simply: Denver’s got capital to move around the board with.

Do I think they’ll move out of the No. 20 spot? Impossible to say from here — there are so many moving pieces ahead of the Broncos on draft night — but there’s an interesting set of conditions brewing.

First, this is a good time for the caveat that teams have substantially more information than we do and, of course, they’ve got an entire staff of scouts, coaches and executives tasked with putting together a plan independent of whatever consensus is out there. We talk to as many people as we can, think through scenarios and possibilities, rely on people we trust, etc., but we still, at the end of the day, are looking in from the outside.

All that being said, let’s look in.

The Broncos could just stick and pick at No. 20. That’s probably the most likely scenario.

There’s plenty of reason to go your direction, Mike, and trade down. Several talented draft analysts think this is a year light on elite, top-end guys but filled with quality players. So at 20, if you’re past the top of the bell curve and into a pool of players that are graded similarly, it makes sense to want to move back a few spots, get a player of similar caliber and also pick up picks.

But if other teams have the draft pegged along a similar track, then why would they want to move up? That’s the practical inhibitor to moving back. It takes two to tango. The best bets from here seem like a team that is either quarterback or tackle needy and gets itchy to move up (or back into the first round) to get their guy.

Denver’s situated just ahead of Pittsburgh in the draft order and the Steelers could be in the QB market. So perhaps if a team wants to jump ahead of them, they’d at least call the Broncos and see what it would take.

Here’s the other inhibitor to moving back: Sean Payton. He’s never traded back in the first round. Not in Denver. Not in all of those years in New Orleans. Nada. Zilch.

The Broncos also haven’t traded back, period, since he’s been here. They moved up for Marvin Mims Jr., Riley Moss and Troy Franklin, but they haven’t moved back.

Heck, general manager George Paton last year said he would have had a cake ready to celebrate the occasion if Denver had traded out of No. 76, a move they were considering if Jonah Elliss hadn’t been available.

Paton likes the darts. Payton prefers to focus almost solely on the target.

So, long story short, the conditions ahead of the draft look ripe for teams around Denver’s position to want to try to trade down. History tells us a Sean Payton-led organization is much more likely to trade up.

I’ve seen several mock drafts that have Quinshon Judkins going to Denver in the second round. If we go that route, who would you like to see us pick in the first round?

— Marvin R., Fort Collins

Hey Marvin, that’s an interesting way to look at it. Let’s assume no trades and Judkins is the pick at No. 51. Cool, he’s a good back. There are a ton of them in this class.

In that scenario, conventional wisdom would be that you’re talking about having drafted a tight end or a defensive lineman in the first round. Maybe a surprise like safety Nick Emmanwori out of South Carolina.

But if you’re asking for ideal scenarios, let’s say Michigan TE Colston Loveland or Oregon DT Derrick Harmon.

With Judkins going at No. 51, the Broncos won’t be able to bank on getting a TE like LSU’s Mason Taylor or even Littleton native and former Oregon standout Terrance Ferguson in the third round. Maybe, but no guarantee. Loveland’s more of a pass-catcher than a blocker and he dealt with a shoulder injury last fall. All the same, he’s widely considered one of the best players in the class. Putting him in the same room as 31-year-old Evan Engram gives you security long term, and in the short term, it turns a weakness last year into a potentially serious strength this fall.

Harmon’s just a high-quality, disruptive defensive lineman. Denver’s stacked there this year but will almost certainly have significant reps to replace after the 2025 season. There are other defensive linemen who could go in a similar range if the Broncos prefer a slightly different flavor.

Is there any shot we land Ashton Jeanty or Omarion Hampton without having to trade up? Their stocks have been rising like crazy!

— Ryan, Lakewood

It’s possible, though almost assuredly not with Jeanty. He’s likely to be long gone by the time the Broncos pick No. 20.

You’ll find consensus that Hampton is a really good prospect and less agreement on exactly whether he’s a bonafide first-round grade or whether he’s more in line with the second wave of backs. Remember, there might only be 15 players in a draft class who any given team grades as a true first-round talent. This year, there could be even slightly fewer than that.

All the same, Hampton could well be gone by 20. Or he could be there and then you’re weighing him against a defensive tackle, tight end or traditionally premium position that’s more of a current strength on the Broncos’ roster like edge or corner.

Predictably, there’s been a lot of buzz about quarterbacks as the draft gets closer. If Miami’s Cam Ward goes No. 1 and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders goes somewhere in the top 10, it will be interesting to see if teams decide they don’t want to risk waiting until Day 2 for Ole Miss’ Jaxon Dart, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe or even Louisville’s Tyler Shough.

Quarterbacks always go early. The fifth year of control is important. And the value is so outsized if you find your guy. The higher and higher second and third contracts go, the more incentivized teams are to keep swinging in the draft, even with an elevated rate of misses.

The ideal situation for the Broncos is a mini run on quarterbacks either early or in the middle of the round. If the Giants go position player at No. 3 and want to get back into the first round? Great. The Los Angeles Rams want to move up from No. 24? Terrific. New Orleans wants to go that route at No. 9? The more the merrier. Any of that would push talent down toward Denver at No. 20.

Jeff Schmedding was announced as the new Broncos inside linebackers coach by The Denver Post and others on May 21, 2025. As of this writing, they have yet to officially acknowledge him on the Broncos’ own website. Why is that, and do we actually have him as a coach?

— Areferee, Greeley

Hey, Ref, you’re right that the Broncos haven’t officially acknowledged Schmedding’s hire online as of Tuesday afternoon, but I’m told he’s on staff and working as expected.

Payton didn’t directly talk about Schmedding at the NFL owners meetings because he wasn’t asked about him, but he did in a way point to the hire when he said, “I think we’re full” on the staff.

There were a lot of moving pieces this offseason for Payton, who said last month, “I felt like every time I left town, when I came back there was another coach gone.” Now the group’s in place and working with the front office and scouting departments to finalize the draft board.

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