Broncos scouting report: How Denver matches up with Bengals and predictions

Broncos (9-6) at Bengals (7-8)

When: Saturday, 2:30 p.m. MT

Where: Paycor Stadium

Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/NFL Network

Broncos-Bengals series: Denver is 22-11 in 33 regular-season games dating back to 1968; the Broncos lost 15-10 in the last meeting, on Dec. 19, 2021, at home, and have dropped two of their last three games to the Bengals.

In the spotlight: Bengals passing game is dangerous, but don’t forget about RB Chase Brown

The Broncos will have their hands full trying to contain wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. But they shouldn’t underestimate running back Chase Brown.

Cincinnati’s run game hasn’t been great — averaging 92.7 yards per game — but since Brown became a full-time starter in Week 9, he has added another element to the offense, which could cause problems for Denver on Saturday. He has totaled 923 yards in 15 games, with 564 of those yards coming in the last seven games. Brown has also been impactive in the passing game, recording 50 catches for 336 yards and four touchdowns.

Brown recorded 18 carries for 91 yards to help the Bengals beat Cleveland last week. He has rushed for at least 90 yards in two straight games.

The Broncos have been one of the best run defenses in the league, but they have struggled recently. After Denver gave up fewer than 80 yards on the ground in four straight contests, the Colts totaled 149 yards in Week 15, and then the Chargers had 117 yards last week on Thursday Night Football.

Denver hasn’t allowed 100-plus rushing yards in back-to-back games since Weeks 1 and 2 of the season.

“It’s execution,” Broncos defensive end John Franklin-Myers said. “Every loss and every bad mistake, I’m gonna put it on the (defensive line). … We got to make those plays.”

Even with Chargers running back JK Dobbins sidelined due to injury, Denver had a hard time containing the run game, especially in crucial moments. In the fourth quarter, Gus Edwards broke loose for a 43-yard gain. Two plays later, quarterback Justin Herbert stepped in and tossed the ball to running back Hassan Haskins, who ran upfield for a 34-yard touchdown.

Edwards had 14 carries for a season-high 68 yards and two touchdowns.

Denver has allowed its share of explosive run plays — something the defense has been good at preventing for the majority of the season. The Broncos have given up nine run plays for 10-plus yards over the last two weeks, including five to the Colts — the most in a game in 2024, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats.

For the Broncos to secure their 10th win of the year and first playoff berth in nearly 10 years, head coach Sean Payton said they will have to play their best games of the season. Part of accomplishing that goal is eliminating Cincinnati’s rushing attack.

“The best thing we can do is play our brand of football and do the simple things better at the end of the day,” cornerback Pat Surtain II said. “We all know once we do the simple things better, that is where we succeed at, and that is where we peak at.”

Who has the edge?

When Broncos run

The Broncos could be in for soggy conditions in Cincinnati, meaning they might have to rely heavily on the run game. Denver ran the ball well early against the Chargers, but the production went down as the game progressed. After the Broncos recorded a season-high 76.9% rushing success rate (percentage of carries resulting in positive EPA) in the first half, the Broncos generated a success rate of 12.5% in the final two quarters, according to Next Gen Stats. The Bengals have given up at least 150 yards in two of their last three games. Edge: Even 

When Broncos pass

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has thrown for at least 200 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in seven games — tied for the second-most by a rookie in NFL history. He has recorded six touchdowns and five picks in the last three games. Bengals cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt has given up seven catches for 48 yards and a passer rating of 30.3 since Week 14. Edge: Broncos

When Bengals run

Cincinnati has had 38 run plays for 10-plus yards — 25th in the league, according to Next Gen Stats. The Broncos have only 40 rushing attempts for at least 10 yards. Denver has the second-best run stuff rate (22.9%) — percentage of run plays resulting in no gain or loss. Edge: Broncos 

When Bengals pass

Denver’s secondary will be at a disadvantage against Chase and  Higgins. However, if the Broncos can create pressure up front, they should have a chance. The Bengals have allowed the 10th-most pressures (198) and are 19th in pressure rate (32.3%). Denver tallied 11 pressures against the Chargers — tied for the third-lowest total in a game this season. Edge: Bengals

Special teams

Bengals kicker Cade York is 4 for 5 on field goal attempts since Evan McPherson was placed on the injured reserve on Dec. 4. Broncos’ Wil Lutz has converted 11 straight field goal attempts. He has gone 5 for 7 on attempts of at least 50 yards. Wideout Marvin Mims Jr. has averaged 15.7 per punt return. Edge: Broncos

Coaching

If the Broncos clinch a playoff spot, there should be some conversations about Payton being a Coach of the Year candidate. However, his reluctance to stick to what works for the offense could prevent Denver from achieving its goals. The Broncos ran it 11 times for 73 yards on their first two drives against Los Angeles. They ran the ball just 10 times for 37 yards for the rest of the game. Bengals coach Zac Taylor has led Cincinnati to four wins in the last seven games. His team is surging at the right time, and that could be problematic for Denver. Edge: Broncos

Tale of the tape

By the numbers

22: Touchdown passes for Nix.

252: Rushing yards for running back Audric Estime.

4: Interceptions for cornerback Pat Surtain II.

16: Touchdown receptions for Chase.

108.5: Passer rating for Burrow.

Bet on it

Joe Burrow over 274.5 passing yards

Burrow has thrown for at least 300 yards in four of his last six games. Even though cornerback Pat Surtain II has been the best cornerback in the league, expect Burrow to test Riley Moss — who has missed the last three games with a knee injury. Plus, Burrow’s ability to exploit busted coverages could be problematic for Denver’s secondary.

Marvin Mims Jr. over 25.5 receiving yards

Denver’s second-year wide receiver has averaged 62.3 yards in the last three games. Two of his longest catches of the season have come during this stretch. Against Cincinnati, the Broncos will try to play up-tempo and establish momentum as quickly as possible. That could mean setting up Mims for a big play or two. He should put up decent numbers on Saturday.

Post predictions

Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Bengals 24, Broncos 20

Denver’s first chance to clinch a postseason spot went begging in Los Angeles. Now its second comes against a desperate, high-powered offense on the road. That’s tough duty. Can Sean Payton’s team win in Cincinnati? Sure. Will it? Not without playing perhaps its most complete game of the season.

Ryan McFadden, beat writer:  Bengals 28, Broncos 27

The Bengals have had their fair share of struggles. However, Burrow and Chase have been playing at a high level while Denver’s defense has been inconsistent in recent weeks. This game should come down to the wire, but Nix and company won’t be able to keep up with Cincinnati in the end.

Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 30, Bengals 29

The reverse lock theory is a baseball axiom where you pick the team that has no business winning based on the matchup. The Broncos have defied expectations this season and played their best when people the least of them. Bo Nix will throw for 300 yards, and Pat Surtain II will make a late play in coverage to secure the upset and the franchise’s first playoff berth since 2015.

Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 28, Bengals 26

Joe Burrow’s so hot right now, he just bought all of his offensive linemen authentic Japanese katanas. But that sword cuts both ways, my friend, as the Bengals are 0-7 this season against teams with a winning record. Riley Moss could be a massive boost — but it’s up to Bo Nix and this offense to score 28 or more, on the road, to become the Grinch that steals Cincy’s playoff hopes.

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