Broncos scouting report: How Denver matches up with Falcons and predictions

Falcons (6-4) at Broncos (5-5)

When: Sunday, 2:05 p.m. MT

Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium

Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/FOX

Broncos-Falcons series: Denver is 8-7 in 15 regular-season games dating back to 1970; the Broncos lost 34-27 in the last meeting, on Nov. 8, 2020, in Atlanta, and have dropped two in a row against the Falcons.

In the spotlight: Atlanta’s biggest weakness could set up big day for Bo Nix

Facing the Saints in Week 10, the Falcons did their best to apply pressure to quarterback Derek Carr. Their efforts were unsuccessful.

The Falcons blitzed at their second-highest rate of the season (48.1%) but only generated two pressures and failed to record a sack, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Carr didn’t flinch in the face of Atlanta’s pass rush, throwing for 125 yards and a touchdown when blitzed during a stunning 20-17 victory over the Falcons.

Atlanta’s struggles to generate pressure have been glaring this fall. The Falcons have the lowest pressure rate (27.4%) and sack total (nine) in the league. However, their biggest issue could be beneficial for Broncos quarterback Bo Nix, who is now trending in the right direction.

During the 2024 draft, the Falcons had a chance to address their pass-rush issues. Jared Verse, one of the top edge rushers in this year’s class, was available when they were on the clock with the eighth overall pick.

Instead, Atlanta shocked the football world, drafting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. despite having signed four-time Pro Bowler Kirk Cousins to a lucrative deal only a few weeks earlier. And 10 weeks into the season, Verse, who went 19th overall to the Rams, has been one of the best defensive rookies in the league. He has collected 4.5 sacks and 45 pressures — sixth-most in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the Falcons’ sack leader, defensive lineman Grady Jarrett, has only 2.5. Veteran outside linebacker Matt Judon, a four-time Pro Bowl selection, has 1.5 sacks and 17 pressures. Judon has had a pressure rate below 10% in four of his last five games.

The Falcons have had five games with fewer than five pressures. Sunday’s loss marked the sixth time they didn’t record a sack. They also haven’t had a sack in three of their last five games.

Denver, on the other hand, has been among the best in the league at protecting the quarterback. The Broncos have allowed the seventh-lowest pressure rate (29.1%) while Nix has only been sacked 17 times, according to Next Gen Stats.

Broncos left tackle Garett Bolles has had an issue with penalties but has been effective in pass protection. He has given up one sack and has the sixth-lowest pressure rate (5.5%) among offensive tackles with a minimum of 200 pass-blocking snaps, according to Next Gen Stats.

Nix is fresh off being named the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Week after throwing for 215 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs. Despite the handful of talented players in Atlanta’s secondary, including safeties Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates III, Denver’s clear advantage in the trenches provides the former Oregon signal-caller a chance to build on his performance in Kansas City.

Who has the edge?

When Broncos run

Against the Chiefs, Audric Estime showed signs he could be Denver’s top running back moving forward with 14 carries for 53 yards. His ability to use his size to power down the field is something the team needs. The rookie is averaging 5.1 yards on 29 carries. The Falcons held the Saints to 96 yards on the ground last week. It was the first time Atlanta gave up fewer than 100 rushing yards in 2024. Edge: Even

When Broncos pass

Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton has seen his production increase in recent weeks. He has totaled 345 yards on 25 receptions over the last five games. His performance against Kansas City (six catches for 70 yards and a touchdown) was his fifth game with at least 60 yards this season. Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell has given up 31 catches for 376 yards and four touchdowns. He has recorded an interception in two of Atlanta’s last four games. Edge: Even

When Falcons run

Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson is a problem. He has recorded 100-plus scrimmage yards in five straight games — the longest active streak in the NFL and longest by a Falcons player since wide receiver Julio Jones in 2018, according to Next Gen Stats. Denver, however, will have to worry about more than just Robinson. Running back Tyler Allgeier has 85 carries for 429 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Broncos have been solid against the run, allowing 3.9 yards per carry — fifth-best in the league. They will be tested on Sunday. Edge: Falcons

When Falcons pass

Atlanta’s pick-your-poison offense, led by quarterback Kirk Cousins, could threaten to extend Denver’s losing streak to three games. The Falcons have five players with at least 300 receiving yards, including wide receiver Drake London (58 catches for 649 yards and six touchdowns). The key for the Broncos will be creating pressure on Cousins. Denver had 20 pressures against the Chiefs, which helped the team stay in the game until the very end. Edge: Even 

Special teams

Last week, the Broncos and Falcons had regrettable performances on special teams. A blocked field goal ended Denver’s chance of securing the biggest upset of the season. Meanwhile, Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo went 1 for 4 on field goal attempts in the loss to New Orleans. But the Broncos have been efficient overall in the kicking and return game. Edge: Broncos

Coaching

Sean Payton is starting to learn what works well for his offense. And that was noticeable during the two touchdown drives at Arrowhead Stadium. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph responded well after watching his unit get beat down by the Ravens in Week 9. Under first-year head coach Raheem Morris, the Falcons, winners of two of their last three games, are off to a solid start despite issues on defense. Edge: Broncos

Tale of the tape

(Click here to view chart in mobile.)

By the numbers

10: Touchdown passes thrown by Broncos QB Bo Nix

569: Receiving yards for Broncos WR Courtland Sutton

7: Sacks recorded by Broncos OLB Nik Bonitto

31: Career interceptions for Falcons S Justin Simmons

8.1: Yards per reception for Falcons RB Bijan Robinson

Bet on it

Falcons third-quarter winner (-102): Denver’s offensive struggles in the third quarter could be beneficial for the Falcons. Through 10 games, the Broncos (57.4) are 29th in total yards in the third quarter and last in passing yards (28.1). They have been held scoreless in the third over the last two games.

Broncos’ first scoring play, touchdown (-180): Denver has recorded a touchdown on its first scoring play in three straight games. Each score was a passing touchdown, including two from Bo Nix and one from Courtland Sutton. With Atlanta’s inconsistent pass defense, Nix has a chance to increase his passing touchdown total on Sunday.

Post predictions

Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Broncos 28, Falcons 27

This feels like a sneaky-tough matchup given the way Kirk Cousins has been playing, the diversity of Atlanta’s offense and the group’s terrific run game. It’s the kind of challenge that can test even the best secondaries. The brain keeps saying “upset alert.” Sometimes you go instead with the gut. And the gut says Sean Payton’s team is ready for this challenge.

Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 24, Falcons 21

Inside the locker room in Kansas City, the Broncos were frustrated by letting a victory over the defending champs slip through their fingers. Expect Denver to carry that aggression over to Sunday’s matchup against Atlanta. Bo Nix will take advantage of Atlanta’s inability to generate pressure and have a strong performance at home.

Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 23, Falcons 20

The Broncos insist this team is different. Time to prove it. If they are a playoff team, they need to win at home against a good team. Bo Nix will join Peyton Manning as the only rookie QB to pass for at least 200 yards and multiple touchdowns in four straight home games. And Denver will benefit as slumping Younghoe Koo misses a key kick, staying on brand since Week 4 (8 for 15).

Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 21, Falcons 20

Only two NFL defenses have given up more rush attempts per game to opposing QBs than the Falcons (6.3), and only five are allowing more QB rush yards per tilt than ATL (28.6). Good defense (Broncos) vs. good offense (Atlanta) + meh offense (Broncos) vs. meh defense (Atlanta) means special teams could swing this one. Wil Lutz for the win, kids. What could possibly go wrong?

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