Colorado Democrats maintain control of the state legislature, but their path to a supermajority is slim

Colorado Democrats held on to their large majorities at the statehouse, but their path to a rare legislative supermajority in both the House and Senate was shrinking Wednesday morning, with a handful of races still too close to call.

Supermajority control could embolden the progressive left to push for a more aggressive agenda on a range of issues like worker and tenant rights, the environment and social services. And there will likely be rising pressure from their base to do so as a bulwark against a second Donald Trump presidency.

But their ability to reshape the state government next year could be limited. Lawmakers will return to a state Capitol in January with a pressing need to slash more than $1 billion in spending, cuts expected to fall heavily on Democratic priorities like Medicaid and education.

And while Republicans remain out of power in the legislature, conservative groups outside the Capitol once again showed their strength in influencing state fiscal policy.

Proposition 130, a conservative-backed measure to force the legislature to spend an additional $350 million on law enforcement instead of social services, was leading with 53% of the vote as of Wednesday morning. That came on the heels of using the threat of two budget crisis-inducing ballot measures to extract property tax cuts from the Democratic majority.

Supermajorities in both chambers would allow legislative Democrats to refer constitutional measures to the ballot without bipartisan support. It also would allow them to override a veto from Democratic Gov. Jared Polis, who has frequently angered progressives by siding with business interests over labor unions and tenant groups that make up the Democratic base.

Neither power is likely to be exercised frequently, if ever, due to the number of moderates in the Democratic caucus.

Instead, the election results could bolster the Democratic agenda — or set it back — in other ways.

Larger numbers would allow Democrats to expand their majorities on legislative committees that determine which bills make it through to a floor vote. That could also dilute the influence of moderate swing votes in either party.

Republicans, meanwhile, hoped that by picking up seats they would be able to gain a stronger foothold in negotiations over tax policy, the state budget and business regulations. They also argued that restoring political balance at the Statehouse would give rural Coloradans more say in what they view as legislative overreach that prioritizes the interests of Denver urbanites over their way of life.

At an election watch party Tuesday night in Denver, Colorado Democrats celebrated their state-level victories before a somber crowd.

As results rolled in showing Republican strength at the national level, House Speaker Julie McCluskie pronounced that Colorado, at least, supported the Democratic Party’s values. And she pledged to reject what she called an “extremist” Republican agenda.

“We are a pro-choice state. We are a pro-public education state,” said McCluskie, a Democrat from Dillon. “Colorado, we believe in climate science and tonight we are electing a pro-climate majority.

“Republicans,” she added, “are lost in the wilderness trying to find their way out.”

Democrats and Republicans both notched victories in key districts across the electoral map Tuesday night. But the overall makeup of the General Assembly appeared unlikely to shift more than a few seats one way or the other.

Democrats needed a net gain of one seat to achieve a supermajority in the Senate, while Republicans needed to flip at least three in the House to eliminate the Democratic supermajority in the lower chamber.

Here’s where some of the key races stood around 11:30 a.m. Wednesday:

State Senate

• In Senate District 5, Rep. Marc Catlin, R-Montrose, led Democrat Cole Buerger, a small business owner, 52% to 48% in a Western Slope seat currently held by Republican Sen. Perry Will. The Associated Press had not called the race on Wednesday morning with 91% of ballots counted.
• Republican Sen. Cleave Simpson of Alamosa cruised to reelection against Democrat Vivian Smotherman, a Durango farmer keeping Senate District 6 in Republican hands. Simpson had 56% of the vote as of 3 a.m. Wednesday.
• Rep. Marc Snyder, D-Manitou Springs, held a narrow lead over El Paso County Commissioner Stan VanderWerf, a Republican, in Senate District 12 — a seat currently held by term-limited Republican Sen. Bob Gardner. Snyder had 50% of the vote to VanderWerf’s 47%, with Libertarian John Angle picking up 3% in a potential spoiler role. The AP had not called the race with 68% of votes counted.
• In Senate District 13, Republican businessman Scott Bright defeated Brighton City Councilman Matt Johnston, a Democrat. That flips a seat held by Sen. Kevin Priola, a term-limited Democrat who was elected as a Republican before switching parties. Bright had 56.4% of the vote to Johnston’s 43.6%, with 73% reporting. The AP called the race at 10:47 a.m. Wednesday.
• Sen. Chris Kolker, D-Centennial, was ahead in his bid for reelection in Senate District 16, leading Centennial City Councilwoman Robyn Carnes 52% to 48% in the south Denver suburbs. With 74% counted, the AP had not called the race. 

State House

• In Colorado Springs’ House District 16, Democratic Rep. Stephanie Vigil held a slim lead over Republican challenger Rebecca Keltie. Vigil had 51% of the vote to Keltie’s 49% with 68% of ballots counted as of 2:52 a.m. The AP had not called the race.
• Democrat Jillaire McMillan led former state Rep. Dan Woog 52% to 48% in a House District 19 seat held by Democratic Rep. Jennifer Parenti of Erie.
• In House District 25, state Rep. Tammy Story, D-Evergreen, defeated Republican George Mumma, a former police chief, in western Jefferson County. With 99% of ballots counted, Story won 52% to 48%.
• Rep. Bob Marshall, a Democrat from Highlands Ranch, held a narrow lead over Republican activist Matt Burcham in House District 43 in Douglas County. With 95% of ballots counted, the incumbent Marshall had 52% of the vote to Burcham’s 48%. The AP had not called the race.
• In House District 50, Republican Ryan Gonzalez held a slim edge over Rep. Mary Young, a Greeley Democrat in a rematch of their 2022 race. Gonzalez had 50.1% of the vote to Young’s 49.9% with 72% of the vote counted as of 3:08 a.m.
• In House District 58, Republican Larry Don Suckla defeated Democrat Kathleen Curry to fill the seat of Republican Marc Catlin, who ran for state Senate. Suckla led 52.9% to 47.1% when the AP called the race at 11:21 a.m.
• Democrat Katie Stewart led 51.4% to 48.6% in House District 59 over Republican Clark Craig in a race to fill the open seat of Rep. Barbara McLachlan, a Durango Democrat. With 92% of votes counted, the AP had not called the race.

State-level super PACs spent more than $13.5 million to sway voters, most of which flowed to the Senate races.

Among the seven contests with the most outside spending, Republicans benefited the most, drawing over $7 million to support their elections versus $3.9 million for Democrats.

The top spender: the Republican Senate Majority Fund, which reported spending $4.8 million. All Together Colorado, the Senate Democratic campaign arm, spent $2.5 million.

This is a developing story that will be updated.

Colorado Sun correspondent Sandra Fish contributed to this report.