Colorado is split into snowpack haves and have-nots, drought report shows

Winter storms brought some moisture back to the northern Colorado mountains, with snow that will melt and recharge the Colorado River Basin in the months to come. But travel south in the state and it’s a far different, more dry story. 

Mountains that, come warmer weather, will have their water running off into northern river basins, like the Yampa, North and South Platte, are in decent shape with snowpack levels hovering at about normal, or even above normal for this time of the year, according to federal data released Thursday. 

But the lack of snow in the Sangre de Cristo and San Juan mountains has left southern river basins lagging behind. Snowpack in the San Miguel-Dolores-Animas San Juan basin is far below average at 67% and the upper Rio Grande Basin at 65%. 

Montrose County saw its driest climatological winter (December through February) on record, data from NOAA shows.

The snow that accumulates in Colorado’s mountains, and more importantly the water stored in the snow, is vital for tens of millions of people across the West. A big portion of the water will replenish the major river basins, filling reservoirs that provide water to cities and farmers and recharging ecosystems along the way. 

As of Thursday, Colorado Headwaters recorded snowpack levels at 98% of average, while the Laramie and North Platte River basin recorded 101% and the South Platte River basin at 102%, according to data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service. Meanwhile, snowpack levels came in at 67% of average in the San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan basin, 65% in the Upper Rio Grande River basin and 73% in the Arkansas River basin.

While winter is not yet over, there are concerns that the next string of storms won’t be enough to tackle the deficit. 

“There is already quite a bit of concern in the southern basins, like in the San Luis Valley in southwestern Colorado, where the water comes from those rivers like the Animas or the Dolores or San Juan River,” said Russ Schumacher, Colorado state climatologist and professor at Colorado State University.

The northern-southern disparity in snowpack levels, which is typical in a La Nina winter, expanded drought in western Colorado. As of Thursday, more than a quarter of the state was in drought conditions and about 47% of the state experiencing abnormally dry or worse conditions, according to the latest map from the U.S. Drought Monitor, 

In some southwestern parts of the state, snowpack is measuring the lowest since severe drought in 2018 plagued the Four Corners area, Schumacher said. 

Before springtime rolls around, Colorado’s current drought conditions might be the most obvious for skiers and snowboarders. Purgatory Resort, a ski area north of Durango that typically sees 260 inches of snow a year, has only recorded 146 inches this year. 

“It’s getting kind of late now to make up for big deficits, especially in the southern mountains. The average peak in the southern mountains is in two to three weeks, generally, and it would take a lot of snow to get to the peak,” Schumacher said. “That being said, you never know what can happen in April and May.”

Many areas along the Western Slope also saw higher than normal temperatures December through February, according to data from the Colorado Climate Center. During those months, temperatures in the San Luis Valley ranked among the 10th warmest since data collection began in 1896. Alamosa had its warmest February on record.

Screenshot of the U.S. Drought Monitor’s latest map released March 13.

A February heatwave that set record temperatures throughout the state was most relentless in western Colorado. In Grand Junction, for example, daily record high temperatures were broken for six consecutive days (five of those were by 6 degrees or more), according to the climate center. 

The city saw temperatures of at least 65 degrees for eight days last month, twice as many as the previous record. For comparison, there have only been six other Februarys over the past 120 years when temperatures were higher than 65 degrees on at least two days.

Two storms predicted to hit Friday and early next week are expected to bring between 2 to 3 inches of precipitation to mountains in the north and south, Schumacher said. 

“They’re not drought-busters by any means,” he said. “But at this point, I think we’ll take anything we can get.”

More drought in the north, high fire danger to the east

While snowfall has helped ease drought in many parts of the state, “extreme” drought persisted in parts of Larimer and Weld counties near the Wyoming border. 

Since May, only 6.75 inches of precipitation has been recorded in Fort Collins, compared with 13 inches on average for that period, Schumacher said. Farther north, more wind likely prevented more moisture from soaking into the soil. 

“A good, wet spring could erase that drought pretty quickly, or at least alleviate the bad conditions that have been there for the last six to nine months,” Schumacher said. “But if we don’t get a wet spring, then the conditions are really going to get pretty bad in those areas, especially in terms of agriculture.”

The southeastern corner of Colorado, experiencing similarly dry conditions, will be at high risk of wildfires Friday as a storm brings consistent winds across parched land, forecasters at the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center said Thursday. Starting Friday morning, wind gusts 65 to 75 mph are expected over southern I-25 and the southern Sangre de Cristo mountains and further east, gusts will be closer to 60 mph, according to the service’s office in Pueblo.