Colorado’s all-candidate primary and ranked choice general election ballot measure is poised to pass, poll shows
Gov. Jared Polis announced this week that he will be voting for the initiative, Proposition 131
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Colorado voters are poised to approve a measure on the November ballot that would change most of the state’s primaries so candidates from all parties run against each other, with the top four vote-getters advancing to a ranked choice voting general election.
That’s according to the results of a poll commissioned by Colorado Voters First, the organization supporting Proposition 131. The poll was conducted among 800 likely voters from Aug. 28 to Sept. 1 by Colorado pollster Keating Research, a Democratic firm with a track record of accurately predicting the outcome of races. The poll had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
Fifty-six percent of those polled said they would vote “yes” on the initiative, while another 8% said they were leaning toward voting “yes” on it. Twenty-one percent said they would vote “no,” while another 4% said they were leaning toward voting “no.” Eleven percent said they were not sure how they would vote or that they were completely undecided.
In ranked choice voting elections, sometimes called instant-runoff voting, voters rank candidates in order of preference. If a candidate wins more than 50% of the first-preference votes, they are declared the winner. If no candidate reaches that threshold, candidates with the fewest first-preference supporters are eliminated. The process continues until one candidate exceeds 50% of the total vote. (This video explains the process in more detail.)
But if the initiative passes, it won’t go into effect right away — if ever. That’s because of a controversial clause added to Senate Bill 210, which was passed by the legislature this year.
The clause requires 12 Colorado municipalities in counties of a certain size and with a specific demographic makeup to conduct ranked choice elections before a ranked choice election could be used in a race for state or federal office. Additionally, the amendment said that Colorado could not move to the new primary system until that requirement has been met.
Gov. Jared Polis nearly vetoed Senate Bill 210, a broader elections measure, because of the clause, which was added in the final days of the General Assembly’s lawmaking term and first reported publicly by The Colorado Sun. Polis said the provision may violate the state constitution — and at least was designed to frustrate the will of voters. Polis wrote in a statement explaining his decision to sign the bill that he thinks statewide ranked choice voting could be implemented in Colorado by 2028. He vowed to bring state leaders together to make that happen.
Even though the Keating poll is a bit dated, that represents a strong position for the measure as Election Day approaches. And with Colorado Voters First planning to spend millions of dollars on ads to shore up support for Proposition 131 and not much money being dedicated to oppose the initiative, those numbers may only increase for the supporters.
Colorado Voters First had raised $8.4 million through Sept. 11, spending $6.15 million of that haul. Kent Thiry, the wealthy former CEO of Denver-based dialysis giant DaVita and one of the main proponents of Proposition 131, had given the committee $1.4 million through Sept. 11. Unite America, an election-reform nonprofit based in Denver, had given the committee $4.7 million as of Sept. 11.
Thiry is cochair of the board overseeing Unite America, a nonprofit that doesn’t disclose its donors.
Voter Rights Colorado, a group backed by a list of progressive organizations that opposes Proposition 131, had raised $35,000 through Sept. 11, spending $10,000 of that sum. Much of its funding has come from a nonprofit that doesn’t disclose its donors.
“We don’t take anything for granted, but with the benefit of early advertising introducing our measure to voters, Prop 131 easily exceeds 60% support,” Monica Burton, a spokeswoman for Colorado Voters First, said in a written statement. “There’s a long way to go, and we aren’t taking our foot off the gas pedal, but it is clear voters are hungry for a policy shift that gives all Coloradans a voice and a vote that matters in our elections.”
In another boost for the supporters of Proposition 131, Polis on Thursday endorsed the measure.
“While Colorado has among the best voter integrity and access protections, no system of voting is perfect, and I think instant runoff voting is better than our current system because it gives voters more choices,” the Democrat wrote in a Facebook post. “I’m hopeful that if it passes it will encourage participation and improve our democracy.”
The Keating poll didn’t include statements about the measure before participants were read the 157-word ballot measure and asked how they would vote on it. There was message testing, but that happened later on in the poll process.
Colorado Voters First didn’t release the results of the message testing it did, but a spokesperson said “support for Prop 131 increased after testing pro and con messages.”
The party registration of those polled was 44% unaffiliated, 29% Democratic and 26% Republican. That roughly mirrors voter registration in Colorado.
Poll participants were also asked if they think things in Colorado are heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction. Forty-five percent said right direction, while 47% said wrong direction and 7% said they didn’t know or were unsure.
As written, Proposition 131 is meant to go into effect in 2026. It would apply to races for Congress, governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, state board of education and University of Colorado regents, as well as state legislative contests. It would not apply to presidential or local contests, like those for district attorney or county commissioner.
