Critical fire danger expected for southeastern Colorado ahead of “damaging” winds across dry land

Strong winds this week are expected to bring critical wildfire danger to many parts of Colorado, particularly the already-parched southern plains.

“Damaging” west winds, with gusts up to 65 mph, are forecast across the San Luis Valley, the southern Interstate 25 corridor and across the Eastern Plains on Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service’s Office in Pueblo. 

The Storm Prediction Center declared a critical fire risk Monday and Tuesday for large swaths of the state, including Denver, Colorado Springs and the Eastern Plains.

But what may be just as concerning as the strong winds is the forecasted cold front, which will bring a sudden shift in the direction that winds are blowing and more challenging conditions if any fire sparks, said Jaclyn Ehr, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Pueblo office.

“Anytime we’re dealing with an active fire situation, any wind shift is considered a heads up for firefighters,” Ehr said Monday. “They don’t want to be on the wrong side of things when that wind shift comes through.”

The National Weather Service has issued red flag warnings for Monday and Tuesday. 

“Extreme fire danger is expected. Fires will uncontrollably spread and be very destructive,” forecasters wrote in a red flag warning message Monday. 

The warning went into effect Monday morning and extends through Tuesday evening for the southern I-25 corridor, San Luis Valley and Eastern Plains. A red flag warning was also issued Monday for the Front Range and northern I-25 corridor with forecasted wind gusts between 25 to 50 mph and 8% to 13% relative humidity levels, according to the NWS Office in Boulder. 

Relative humidity is expected to drop into the single digits Monday along the southern I-25 corridor and east, as well as portions of Fremont and Teller counties, Ehr said.

On Tuesday, temperatures are forecast to drop slightly and moisture levels are expected to rise, but with high winds high fire risk will still loom in many parts of eastern Colorado.

Forecasters predict relative humidity levels Tuesday to hover around the low or mid-teens in some areas. When relative humidity decreases, fire behavior increases because finer fuels, like pine needles and grass, become more dry, faster. 

Prowers, Baca and Kiowa counties, in southeastern Colorado, are facing abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions, which also elevate wildfire risk. 

High wind warnings for southern Colorado will also go into effect starting Tuesday morning. There will likely be dangerous crosswinds on north-south highways earlier in the day, before the wind shifts and creates perilous conditions on east-west highways, Ehr said. 

“We also have a really good chance of seeing some blowing dust, which of course is dangerous as well,” Ehr said. “We could have near-zero visibilities with blowing dust.”

High winds last week in southern Colorado prompted the state’s health department to issue a warning, urging people with respiratory issues to stay inside or wear a mask until the storm passed. Blowing dust can significantly lower air quality.