D.C. area faces a typically hot August but more rain than normal
2024-08-01T12:59:29.420ZA hot day begins with sun rising over the Potomac River and Memorial Bridge on Thursday. (Jeannie in D.C.)July was extremely hot and also generally lacking in rain. We look to reverse these trends over the next several weeks.August’s heat should be a little more subdued compared with July’s, which produced four days with highs in the triple digits. We lean toward temperatures near or just slightly above normal in the month ahead.Many parts of the region also were drier than normal in July as drought expanded and intensified. But August should bring more rainfall, cutting into precipitation deficits. We expect between 3 and 5 inches of rain overall.Model forecastsThe latest computer model projections for the first half of August (top) show pretty close to normal temperatures despite the highs well into the 90s at present:Temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) projections for the first half of August from the American (left) and European (right) modeling systems. (StormVistaWxModels.com) The rainfall forecasts (bottom) show “green” over Washington, meaning wetter-than-normal conditions. The National Weather Service is forecasting 1.5 to 2.0 inches of rain over the next seven days for the area, supporting this idea.The models for the second half of August project near- to slightly hotter-than-normal temperatures (top), but are divided on rainfall (bottom):Temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) projections for the first second of August from the American (left) and European (right) modeling systems. (StormVistaWxModels.com) Both models (above) show the most intense heat well west of Washington in the back half of August, meaning the jet stream should tend to dip into the eastern United States at times, which would increase precipitation chances. So we tend to favor wetter projections for the second half of the month.July recapIt was the fourth-hottest July on record in Washington — 2.7 degrees above normal — and the hottest July since 2020. The rainfall of 4.82 inches, measured at Reagan National Airport, was actually 0.49 inches wetter than normal but not really representative of most of the region. Both Dulles and BWI Marshall airports saw substantially less rain than normal with deficits of 1.49 and 3.07 inches, respectively.Hot weather ruled with only nine days cooler than normal:July 16 was the month’s hottest day with a high of 104, the highest temperature since July 7, 2012.Here are the heat records that were set during the month:July 6:July 7:July 14:July 15:Tuesday, July 16:Year to dateBoosted by the hot July, 2024 is tracking as the second-hottest year on record in Washington, only trailing 2012:Rainfall picked up in July, and year-to-date precipitation totals are close to normal:
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July was extremely hot and also generally lacking in rain. We look to reverse these trends over the next several weeks.
August’s heat should be a little more subdued compared with July’s, which produced four days with highs in the triple digits. We lean toward temperatures near or just slightly above normal in the month ahead.
Many parts of the region also were drier than normal in July as drought expanded and intensified. But August should bring more rainfall, cutting into precipitation deficits. We expect between 3 and 5 inches of rain overall.
Model forecasts
The latest computer model projections for the first half of August (top) show pretty close to normal temperatures despite the highs well into the 90s at present:
The rainfall forecasts (bottom) show “green” over Washington, meaning wetter-than-normal conditions. The National Weather Service is forecasting 1.5 to 2.0 inches of rain over the next seven days for the area, supporting this idea.
The models for the second half of August project near- to slightly hotter-than-normal temperatures (top), but are divided on rainfall (bottom):
Both models (above) show the most intense heat well west of Washington in the back half of August, meaning the jet stream should tend to dip into the eastern United States at times, which would increase precipitation chances. So we tend to favor wetter projections for the second half of the month.
July recap
It was the fourth-hottest July on record in Washington — 2.7 degrees above normal — and the hottest July since 2020. The rainfall of 4.82 inches, measured at Reagan National Airport, was actually 0.49 inches wetter than normal but not really representative of most of the region. Both Dulles and BWI Marshall airports saw substantially less rain than normal with deficits of 1.49 and 3.07 inches, respectively.
Hot weather ruled with only nine days cooler than normal:
July 16 was the month’s hottest day with a high of 104, the highest temperature since July 7, 2012.
Here are the heat records that were set during the month:
July 6:
July 7:
July 14:
July 15:
Tuesday, July 16:
Year to date
Boosted by the hot July, 2024 is tracking as the second-hottest year on record in Washington, only trailing 2012:
Rainfall picked up in July, and year-to-date precipitation totals are close to normal:
