Ex-Waymo CEO shares why he still thinks Tesla can't compete with Waymo's robotaxis

• Ex-Waymo CEO John Krafcik told Business Insider that Waymo currently has no competitors.
• He once again dismissed Tesla's camera-only approach to autonomous driving.
• Krafcik also said other companies in the US and China are still behind Waymo.

In 2021, when John Krafcik was approaching the tail-end of his career leading Alphabet's Waymo, the chief executive blew off Tesla as a serious competitor in the robotaxi race, dismissing Elon Musk's EV company as an automaker with a "really good driver assistance system."

Four years later, his position remains the same.

"Tesla has aspired to compete with Waymo for nearly 10 years, but they still don't," Krafcik said in email correspondence with Business Insider. "They're a car company with a driver-assist system. They haven't delivered a single fully autonomous revenue-generating ride yet, something Waymo is already doing a million times a month."

Tesla last year made a splashy demonstration of its robotaxi prototype, Cybercab, a low-profile coupe with no steering wheel that seats two passengers, along with a retrofuturistic, self-driving van. Wall Street wasn't impressed, and neither was Krafcik.

"If a company were serious about building a safe and accessible Robotaxi business, it would look nothing like what was shown," Krafcik told BI after Cybercab's unveiling in October.

Krafcik has remained highly critical of Tesla's robotaxi dreams.

The ex-Waymo CEO joins many in the AV space who say that safe and reliable autonomous vehicles require lidar sensors and cameras to help them navigate their environment.

Tesla and its CEO, on the other hand, are betting on using cameras only with hopes that the company can deploy an autonomous driver at scale without the costs of attaching lidar sensors.

But Krafcik dismisses the cost case.

"The cost of a robust sensor set, including lidar, is trivial on a per-mile basis. Even more so for mapping," he wrote. "And the safety benefits measured in human harm reduction are real and verifiable."

A spokesperson for Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.

The robotaxi competition

The ex-Waymo CEO, who left the company in April 2021 for unspecified reasons and now sits on Rivian's board, believes Waymo remains far ahead of the curve in autonomous ride-hailing services even as companies in the US and China deploy their own robotaxis.

Baidu's Apollo Go said the company delivered about 1.1 million rides in China during the fourth quarter of 2024. Zoox, an Amazon subsidiary, is still testing in San Francisco and Las Vegas and plans to launch to the public in those cities later this year. Musk also has promised to deliver fully autonomous rides in Austin by June.

Waymo said it's providing more than 200,000 rides a week throughout its operating cities in Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco. The ride-hailing service continues to expand throughout the US and has begun limited testing in Tokyo.

"At the moment, Waymo has no competition," Krafcik, who also previously led Hyundai Motor America as its CEO, said.

Krafcik said he's been most impressed with Waymo's progress in terms of scale, safety, and performance. Because of this, he believes Waymo will stay ahead of the game for at least the next three to five years.

"They are the only company in the world successfully deploying an embodied AI replacement for a licensed human driver that can be integrated into any vehicle — and doing this at scale with third-party data verifying significant performance and safety advantages over human drivers," Krafcik said.

A Waymo spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

On Zoox, Krafcik said he has "high hopes" and appreciates "the care they are taking to get to market." Still, the Amazon-owned company's robotaxi operation is at a smaller scale that's more comparable to Waymo in 2018, he said.

On Chinese competitors, Krafcik didn't name specific companies but told BI he was skeptical that their autonomous drivers performed as well as Waymo's, given that they've failed to launch a robotaxi service in the US. For example, Pony.ai, a Chinese startup, had its California permit revoked by the Department of Motor Vehicles in May 2022, citing multiple driving violations.

Spokespeople for Zoox and Pony.ai did not respond to a request for comment.

The bull case for Waymo

The north star for Waymo won't just be a stand-alone ride-hailing service, Krafcik said, adding that he envisions the company offering a subscription service for a "guaranteed Waymo Driver access" and autonomous driving software that can be deployed in large trucks and personal vehicles.

Some analysts anticipate a Waymo IPO and a break-off from Alphabet as its business advances.

Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management wrote in November that Waymo could spin out of Alphabet within two to four years and potentially be valued at $350 billion to $850 billion by 2030.

Krafcik, who oversaw Waymo's 2016 spin-off into an independent subsidiary of Alphabet, said, "There's no rush."

"Waymo has a deep, smart group of patient investors," he said. "There's no rush — they're not like the other wanna-be-AV companies tapping public markets to get quick cash to survive. Most of these companies don't have the technology to deliver their promises and will fail."