How the Philippines Can Help the US Deter Chinese Aggression

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s visit to the Philippines in November underscored the importance of the archipelago nation assisting the United States in the broader effort to deter the belligerence of the People’s Republic of China in the Indo-Pacific. As our treaty ally, the Philippines is showing initiative in the face of Chinese aggression through increased defense spending, calculated diplomatic mediation, and defense cooperation with the United States.

The geography of the Philippines plays a major role making the archipelago nation an ideal partner in the U.S. strategy for deterring Chinese aggression. The country is not only positioned astride the vital sea lanes of the South China Sea, which China is illegally trying to control, but is also comprised of a complex web of islands, bays, inlets, and channels that form a natural defensive barrier.

The Philippines has the potential to play a much larger role in regional security as well. For reference, the Philippines has a larger economy than other regional partners such as Vietnam or Malaysia and is host to a number of important military bases that the U.S. military has access to. To get serious about defending Philippine sovereignty, the Philippines can build upon its 2023 Bilateral Defense Guidelines with the United States by making more investments in its own military rather than relying so heavily on the U.S.

In November, Austin visited Antonio Bautista Air Base on the Palwan Island, the front line of the fight for nations to have the freedom of navigation within the South China Sea. The international waterway is the vital pathway for over $3 trillion of trade goods annually and the flashpoint for recent Chinese aggression.

The Chinese government has been constructing artificial islands within the South China Sea as well as encroaching on the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, the 200 nautical miles of ocean that extends from a nation’s shoreline. According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, a nation has exclusive privileges over natural resources and development within those 200 nautical miles.

China has unlawfully claimed all of the territory and sea encompassing virtually the entire South China Sea. In 2016, the U.N.’s International Court of Justice’s Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled that China’s claims and actions violated the Law of the Sea convention and determined that the shoals claimed by China are within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

China has intensified its militarization of its artificial islands by deploying long-range anti-access/area denial weapons and opposing nearby U.S. Navy patrols through diplomatic channels. China’s People’s Liberation Army Coast Guard has escalated illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive activities to harass and disrupt Philippine maritime operations within the Philippines’ economic zone.

This year, China’s Coast Guard launched an attack with machetes, knives, and hammers on Philippine sailors attempting to resupply the crew of the BRP Sierra Madre, a grounded naval ship, in June 2024. In September 2024, the Coast Guard also rammed a Philippine resupply ship, marking the culmination of a series of intentional ramming incidents at the hands of the Chinese.

In response to this, the Philippines’ new Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept will wisely shift defense resources toward integrating air, land, and sea power for external defense. After years of successful internal operations against Islamist insurgents, Philippine strategic planners are refocusing the Philippine Army and Navy on external security missions. The defense concept prioritizes the historically underfunded Philippine Navy and new asymmetric capabilities for the Philippine Army.

The Philippines can pursue military capabilities to deter China by purchasing cost-effective anti-ship systems, fast-attack watercraft, and F-16 jet fighters.     

The U.S. should consider ways to help the Philippine Air Force finance the purchase of F-16s. The administration could include discounted F-16s in a future military aid agreement in exchange for enhanced American access to and infrastructure investments on the 10 bases where the United States military already rotates troops under its Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the Philippines.

The Biden administration prioritized American military aid to Ukraine, unwisely focusing efforts on a secondary theater of war over the primary theater of importance—the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. now has the opportunity to prioritize enhancing our Indo-Pacific allies’ capabilities against our primary strategic adversary.

The United States military can enable the Philippines to better defend its military and civilian centers with air defense bubbles created by increasing rotational deployment of air and missile defense systems. The U.S.’s proven Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense systems and short-range air defenses will create “no-go zones” for enemy aircraft and missiles, complicating Chinese planning.

To fully implement its strategic plans, the Philippines will likely need to raise its defense spending to around 2% of its GDP, on target with other U.S. allies. Manila should allocate this capital especially to anti-ship and anti-air capabilities, accelerate the modernization of the Philippine military, and strengthen interoperability with the U.S. military. 

For more context, read The Heritage Foundation’s full report “Strengthening the U.S.–Philippine Alliance.”

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