How Trump could exploit a looming global struggle for rare-earth minerals

• Donald Trump wants to divide US rivals Russia and China.
• An area of tension is China's new assertiveness in Central Asia.
• The region contains rare-earth mineral resources that several countries want to access.

At the Valdai forum last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin was keen to tamp down rumors of simmering tensions with his closest global ally, China's leader Xi Jinping.

The source of the perceived tension is China's growing assertiveness in Central Asia. The region is the latest area in which Xi has launched an audacious bid to increase his political and economic authority and cement its dominance in rare-earth minerals.

"What is happening in Central Asia? Many expected it to be a site of conflict or clash between China and Russia," Putin told the forum. "This has not happened."

But the reassurances will not convince everyone, and among those on the lookout for signs of division between Putin and Xi is President-elect Donald Trump. 

The Republican, days before his election, criticized the Biden Administration for allowing China and Russia, the US' two most powerful adversaries, to draw closer together and said that when he takes office, he'd be seeking to drive them apart. 

The power grab over rare-earth minerals in Central Asia could be among the issues he will seek to exploit.

A power struggle over rare-earth minerals 

At stake for the US in Central Asia is not just political power but access to the region's reserves of rare-earth minerals such as uranium, lithium, and tantalum.

Rare-earth minerals are needed to make all sorts of products, from F-35 stealth fighters and smartphones to internet fiber-optic cables and MRI machines.

"If rare earth elements are the crude oil of the 21st century, then Central Asia and Mongolia may be the Saudi Arabias of these strategic minerals," wrote Wilder Alejandro Sánchez, an analyst at consulting firm Second Floor Strategies.

"Just like the Middle East, the region is subject to intense and divergent political pressures. Russia and China border the region, each exercising their influence at the other's expense and eager to keep the West out."

China has the biggest global reserves of these materials. It produces around 60% of the world's rare-earth minerals and processes nearly 90%, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

To cement its dominance, China is also spending billions on infrastructure in Central Asia and brokering new trade and security deals.

At the same time, Western leaders are seeking to strengthen their influence in the area and secure access to its resources. France's President Emmanuel Macron visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan last November and Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited the region in September.

'It would be a blow to our interests if either China or Russia established overwhelming influence there," John Herbst, who served as US Ambassador to Uzbekistan between 2000-2003, told Business Insider. "The key, of course, are Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan."

"Rare earths, especially in Kazakhstan, are one more reason to establish closer relations in the region and especially its two principal nations."

Stefan Wolff, a professor of international security at the University of Birmingham in the UK told BI that Trump could seek to broker a deal with Putin to gain better US access to developing Central Asia's rare-earth mineral resources — and exclude China.

"There are rare-earth minerals worth exploring/exploiting, and if the US/EU could strike a major deal with [Kazakhstan's capital] Astana, this would certainly contribute to breaking China's monopoly," said Wolff.

"So, the incentive is clearly there to regain a foothold in Central Asia."

Central Asian nations seek autonomy from the Kremlin 

China's growing presence in Central Asia is likely enraging the Kremlin, say observers. But Russia is so indebted to China for its diplomatic and economic support in Ukraine, that it's in no position to protest. 

"There are clearly tensions between Russia and the Central Asian successor states of the Soviet Union," Wolff said.

He pointed to recent tensions between Kazakhstan and Russia. The Central Asian nations refused to join the BRICS alliance, which Russia has sought to expand as a bulwark against the US. In October, Russia banned some agricultural exports to Kazakhstan in response.

Despite Putin's bid to portray the relationship with China in Central Asia as part of a mutually beneficial "no limits" partnership, tensions remain between them.

For now, Xi and Putin are determined to supplant the US as the world's dominant powers.

"But if one of them decides that working against the US damages their international position, their partnership will wither away because even today there are tensions in their relationship," said Herbst.

"Even today, China has not hidden its long-term revanchist ambitions over Russian, Kazakhstani, Kyrgyz, and Tajikistani territory."

Russia and China have too much to gain

For now, dismantling China and Russia to gain more US access to Central Asia seems like a long shot.

Russia and China have too much to gain from excluding the US from Central Asia, regardless of how much Trump may seek to exploit tensions between Putin and Xi.

"It is unlikely that as long as Putin considers the US its main adversary, Russia would break with China. That would not change because of some American initiative in Central Asia," said Herbst.

Putin sees in Xi a more predictable partner than the mercurial Trump, said Wolff.

"Putin and his regime are simply more likely to survive in partnership with Xi. I don't think that Putin sees Trump as a dependable partner in any potential deal," he said. 

"That's not to say that there won't be a transactional improvement in relations between Washington and Moscow, but it will not derail the relationship between Beijing and Moscow."