'Many countries will likely end up in a recession' thanks to US tariffs, warns Fitch's top US economist
"You can throw most forecasts out the door, if this tariff rate stays on for an extended period of time," wrote the Fitch economist.
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- A Fitch economist just issued a warning about recessions globally.
- He said many countries around the world could experience a recession due to new US import tariffs.
- US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new import tariffs on all countries ranging from 10% to 49%.
Many countries around the world are likely to face economic downturns following US President Donald Trump's new tariffs on imports, an economist said.
"This is a game changer, not only for the US economy but for the global economy. Many countries will likely end up in a recession," wrote Olu Sonola, the head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings, in a note on Wednesday.
Sonolo's assessment came after Trump announced tariffs of 10% to 49% on imports from all countries with tariffs on US goods.
The new levies bring the US's tariff rate to around 22% — a level last seen around 1910, according to Fitch's analysis. It's also sharply higher than 2024's 2.5% rate.
"You can throw most forecasts out the door, if this tariff rate stays on for an extended period of time," wrote Sonola.
It's unclear how long these tariffs could last. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg in a Wednesday interview that Wednesday's tariffs were "the high end of the number, barring retaliation."
"We'll see where it goes from here," Bessent said.
Asia is hit particularly hard. The region's largest economy, China, faces 54% levies, including 34% in reciprocal tariff announced on Wednesday and pre-existing duties of 20%.
US allies Japan and South Korea face 24% and 25% in reciprocal tariffs, respectively. India faces 26% duties.
Southeast Asian countries — many of which have become supply chain hubs for companies diversifying manufacturing activities from China — are some of the most impacted by the new US tariffs.
Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia face tariffs of 46%, 36%, 32%, and 24%, respectively.
Meanwhile, Trump hit the European Union, a key ally, with 20% in tariffs.
