Nearly $13 million has been spent by state-level super PACs on Colorado legislative races this year

State-level super PACs reported spending nearly $13 million on Colorado House and Senate races through Thursday morning, according to a Colorado Sun analysis of campaign finance reports. 

That’s about $5 million more than was reported spent through Oct. 22. And the list of races where the most money has been spent has changed quite a bit, reflecting shifting priorities and competitiveness.

If Democrats lose three House seats on Tuesday, their supermajority in the chamber will be kaput. In the Senate, Democrats need to flip just one seat to secure a supermajority.

With a supermajority in both chambers of the legislature, Democrats could refer measures amending the state constitution to the statewide ballot without needing Republicans’ help. They could also override vetoes from Gov. Jared Polis, who has rejected a number of bills from his own party in recent years.   

The super PACs can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money as long as they don’t coordinate with candidates. Because Colorado’s campaign contribution limits to individual candidates are so low, most election money flows through the committees. 

These are the six races where the most state-level super PAC spending had been reported through Thursday morning: 

• The Colorado legislative race with the most state-level super PAC spending is now Senate District 12 in El Paso County, where state Rep. Marc Snyder, D-Manitou Springs, is running against El Paso County Commissioner Stan VanderWerf, a Republican. About $3.4 million has been dropped on the contest, roughly evenly split between the candidates. The race was No. 2 on the list last week. The district, which leans slightly in Republicans’ favor, is currently represented by term-limited GOP Sen. Bob Gardner.  All of the state Senate seats up for grabs this year are being contested for the first time since their boundaries were redrawn during the 2021 redistricting process. 
• The Senate District 5 race between state Rep. Marc Catlin, R-Montrose, and Democrat Cole Buerger, a small business owner who lives in Glenwood Springs, fell one spot on the super PAC spending list since last week. More than $3.2 million has been dedicated to the contest, with the majority of that — $2.3 million — to help Catlin. The district is currently represented by Sen. Perry Will, a New Castle Republican appointed to the seat by a vacancy committee; he is running for Garfield County commissioner instead of seeking another term. Voters in the district, which is seen as the deciding factor in determining whether Democrats secure a Senate supermajority, have backed Democratic and Republican candidates in other races in recent years.
• No. 3 on the state-level super PAC spending list is House District 25, where state Rep. Tammy Story, D-Evergreen, faces a challenge from Republican George Mumma, a former police chief. About $860,000 has been spent on the contest, with $570,000 of that going to help Mumma. The district has moved up one spot on the list since last week. Story won in the western Jefferson County district by 729 votes, or about 1 percentage point, in 2022.
• Nearly $770,000 has been spent in House District 16 in Colorado Springs, where Democratic state Rep. Stephanie Vigil faces Republican Rebecca Keltie, a Navy veteran and self-described anti-establishment candidate. About $550,000 had been spent to help Keltie, and about $175,000 had been spent to Vigil’s benefit. The race moved up the list by one spot to No. 4. Vigil beat her Republican opponent in 2022 by 710 votes, or 2 percentage points.
• Senate District 6 moved down two spots on the list. At $717,000 in spending, this race between Sen. Cleave Simpson, R-Alamosa, and Democrat Vivian Smotherman, a Durango farmer and Navy veteran, appears to be losing its supermajority significance. All of the spending in the district has been on Simpson’s behalf. The sum increased by only $100,000 since Oct. 22.  The district is estimated to lean 1 percentage point in Democrats’ favor.
• The race in House District 43 between Rep. Bob Marshall, D-Highlands Ranch, and Republican activist Matt Burcham in Douglas County is No. 6 on the list after not breaking the top six last week. More than $700,000 has been spent on this contest by state-level super PACs, about $460,000 of which has been to Burcham’s benefit.  Marshall won this district by 405 votes, or less than a percentage point, in 2022.

The state-level super PACs spending the most money

There are many state-level super PACs spending on legislative races this year. Here are five that had reported spending the most through Thursday morning:

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• The Senate Majority Fund, the state Senate Republican campaign arm, had reported spending $4.5 million through Thursday morning. The PAC’s single largest donation this cycle so far was $1.4 million from GOPAC Election Fund, a Virginia-based federal PAC that works to get Republicans elected to legislatures across the country. The Senate Majority Fund has also received $3.1 million this election cycle from the Senate Majority Fund 527 Committee, an affiliated group that has received donations from a number of businesses. 
• All Together Colorado, the state Senate Democratic campaign arm, has spent at least $2.3 million. The PAC’s single largest donation this cycle so far was $250,000 from the Sixteen Thirty Fund, a Washington, D.C.-based political nonprofit that supports liberal candidates and causes and doesn’t report its donors. The PAC has also received large donations from Colorado Fine Wine & Spirits, Everytown For Gun Safety, Fair Share Action, the Colorado Education Association, Planned Parenthood, the Sports Betting Alliance and Conservation Colorado.
• Colorado Way Forward, the state House Democratic campaign arm, reported spending $2.1 million through Thursday morning. The group’s single largest donation this cycle came from Rocky Mountain Planned Parenthood, at $200,000. The PAC has also received large donations from Conservation Colorado, Fair Share Action, the Sixteen Thirty Fund, Colorado Education Association and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.
• Coloradans for Accountable Government has spent about $1 million supporting Republican candidates and opposing Democrats. The Colorado Oil and Gas Association has given $530,000 to the committee, while the Colorado League of Charter Schools Action has given $200,000. 
• New Day Colorado Fund, the state House Republican campaign arm, reported spending about $800,000 through Thursday morning. Much of the PAC’s money has come from the New Day Colorado Fund 527 Committee, an affiliated group that has received its donations from a range of business interests. The PAC has also received major donations from Phillips 66, the Sports Betting Alliance, the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America and Reynolds Services Company.

Colorado Sun correspondent Sandra Fish contributed to this report.