Nicolais: How blue states could work around Trump’s federal government

As I said to a friend lamenting the new Trump administration recently, four weeks down, only two hundred to go — assuming he abides by the 22nd Amendment and leaves office.

Apparently that was not comforting.

The chaotic whirlwind created by Trump returning to the White House has left many reeling in the past month. From agencies and organizations who found funding frozen to lawsuits across the board, America has never experienced such upheaval in its federal government. It won’t get better any time soon, either.

To the contrary, things will almost certainly get worse.

While opinions over the actions taken by Trump — and Elon Musk, who has been almost as omnipresent as the president himself — have been widely split along party lines, the effects will not be so limited. Over time they will spread across the country, ignoring distinctions between red homes and blue homes. 

A good example is the 25% tariff on imported aluminum and steel. It will take companies time to adjust to the strain on supply chains and balance price hikes. It is unlikely we see car prices and construction costs spike immediately. But it is bound to happen. The CEO of Ford — the top domestic auto maker — has sounded the alarm over “a lot of costs, and a lot of chaos.”

And that is just one policy.

The complete gutting of USAID, ICE raids across the county and the danger posed to personal data and federal payments by Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, aka DOGE, all present problems exponentially larger than the tariffs. But the long-term effects may not be apparent for months or years. 

Sure, people in other countries reliant on U.S. aid will starve to death in the next few weeks. Many families within our borders will be ripped asunder by federal agents shipping people to internment camps. And the freezes on funding will destroy years of study for people trying to cure diseases like cancer.

But those do not impact the American people writ large. Not in the immediate, personal way that seems to be the only repercussion many citizens understand. It won’t be until new car prices spike months from now that some will take note. Others will not notice until the housing crisis worsens as construction costs skyrocket.

By then, we may be in a hole that will take decades to escape.  

That might be the perfect place for states to step up. With the federal government engaged in double-speak while engaged in a massive wealth transfer from consumers and public welfare agencies to ultra-wealth individuals set to get tax breaks, state governments should be preparing to fill in the gaps left behind.

Ironically, this is a system that many classical conservatives preached pre-Trump. The idea of laboratories of democracy and states rights formed the backbone of conservative legal theory for decades. Even Trump has paid lip-service to it when it suited him, particularly when discussing abortion rights on the campaign trail.

But Democrats in blue states like Colorado could take advantage of such an approach. It may mean raising state taxes, particularly on the ultra-wealthy people getting a federal tax break. It could also mean creating or expanding state agencies to fill the void left by eviscerated federal programs.

These things do not happen overnight. The systems torn down by Musk and Trump took decades to erect. Furthermore, they had the benefit of aggregate federal funding — they drew on resources from across the country, not just in a single state.

But with plenty of institutional experts purged from federal positions, there may be an opportunity to incorporate much of their knowledge. It is not building from scratch if you have the people with the blueprints helping erect new structures.

It could also be a time of innovation and out-of-the box thinking for states. For example, states have made interstate compacts since nearly the founding of the country. There is no reason that states with similar mindsets could not bargain to burden-share. As Medicaid and Medicare are targeted nationally, states that retain compassion for their elders and the most vulnerable could potentially create their own fund to provide quality health care.

It may not be as outlandish as it seems at first blush. After all, most blue states send more money to the federal government than they receive in return. They are effectively subsidizing red states. I am sure that more than a few would be willing to withdraw from all federal help if they could keep most of their tax revenue within their borders.

It may sound outlandish and ill-conceived. But with four more years of Trump, those may be the only type of options left open to protect what we hold dear.

Mario Nicolais is an attorney and columnist who writes on law enforcement, the legal system, health care and public policy. Follow him on Bluesky: @MarioNicolais.bsky.social.

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