Nuggets playoff scenarios, explained: Western Conference seeding, tiebreakers, first-round matchups
Don't want to sweat through another Nuggets vs. Timberwolves playoff series? Here's what you need to root for on Sunday to avoid it in the first round.
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The final weekend of the NBA regular season has arrived, but the Western Conference playoff picture remains as murky as it has virtually all season.
The entire league is set to play Sunday afternoon, and the Nuggets still haven’t clinched a top-six seed yet as the 15 teams in the West prepare to tip off their finales simultaneously at 1:30 p.m. MT.
When the dust settles, Denver could be in any of four spots in the standings — including a Play-In Tournament scenario.
Here’s a guide to every seeding scenario and the possible first-round playoff matchups.
Nuggets’ relevant games for playoff seeding
• Nuggets at Rockets, 1:30 p.m.
• Clippers at Warriors, 1:30 p.m.
• Jazz at Timberwolves, 1:30 p.m.
There are eight possible combinations of outcomes in these three games. Five combinations result in the Nuggets facing the Clippers in the first round.
But in the other three combinations, Denver could find itself matched up with the Timberwolves, Lakers, Rockets or Thunder in a series.
Nuggets are No. 4 seed if …
This is the easy part. If the Nuggets win in Houston, they are locked in at the No. 4 seed no matter what else happens, clinching home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
The other games would merely determine the opponent. Here are the possible outcomes.
• Nuggets win + Clippers win OR Nuggets win + Warriors win + Timberwolves loss = Nuggets (4) vs. Clippers (5)
• Nuggets win + Warriors win + Timberwolves win = Nuggets (4) vs. Timberwolves (5)
Nuggets are No. 5 seed if …
There’s one scenario in which the Nuggets still face the Clippers, but as the visiting team in the series. It would involve an unlikely result in another game, but Minnesota star guard Anthony Edwards happens to be suspended for that game after picking up his 18th technical foul of the season on Friday.
• Nuggets loss + Timberwolves loss = Nuggets (5) vs. Clippers (4)
Nuggets are No. 6 seed if …
It should be noted that the Rockets are incentivized to rest their key players on Sunday and avoid potentially harmful injuries, as they have already clinched the No. 2 seed. Houston cannot move up or down in the standings anymore. In theory, this should support Denver’s chances of earning a win and the No. 4 seed.
Then again, the Nuggets visited Houston without their own superstar last month and won shorthanded. Moral of the story: Anything is possible in the NBA. And that’s why every scenario must be presented, including the one where Luka Doncic and LeBron James enter the picture.
• Nuggets loss + Clippers win + Timberwolves win = Nuggets (6) vs. Lakers (3)
The Nuggets could still technically finish with the same record as the Lakers, but Los Angeles would win a two-way or three-way tiebreaker. Nobody can catch the Lakers for third place anymore.
Nuggets fall to Play-In Tournament as No. 7 seed if …
This is why the Nuggets cannot officially claim they’ve clinched a playoff spot yet. There is one scenario that lands them in the Play-In Tournament via a four-way tiebreaker, and once you’re in the Play-In Tournament, you’re a two-game losing streak away from being eliminated without a series.
• Nuggets loss + Warriors win + Timberwolves win = Nuggets (7) vs. Grizzlies (8) single game; Winner vs. Rockets (2)
If this happens, the Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors and Wolves will all finish with 49 wins. Denver would sink to the bottom of the pecking order due to its 0-4 record against Minnesota this season. The Timberwolves would snatch the No. 4 seed and play the No. 5 seed Clippers in this outcome. Golden State would be the No. 6.
If the Nuggets do fall to the Play-In Tournament and then lose at home to Memphis, they’ll host either Sacramento or Dallas in an elimination game. The winner of that would advance to the playoffs as the No. 8 seed to face Oklahoma City.
NBA Cup scheduling gave Nuggets a tiebreaker
On the original NBA schedule that was unveiled in August, the Nuggets and Clippers were slated to play three games against each other — two of them in Denver, one in Los Angeles.
The Nuggets lost the first two meetings, seemingly clinching a hypothetical head-to-head tiebreaker for the Clippers. But the league threw in a plot twist.
When teams are eliminated from the NBA’s in-season tournament before the knockout stage, they are assigned newly scheduled games in December against other eliminated teams. This happened to the Nuggets. One of the new games added to their schedule: Dec. 13, 2024, against the Clippers at Ball Arena.
Not only did Denver suddenly have two games remaining to even the season series instead of one, but thanks to the NBA’s brilliant scheduling, three of the four meetings were to be played in Denver, rather than a split of two games in each city.
The Nuggets won at Ball Arena on Dec. 13, and they won at Ball Arena again on Jan. 8. The head-to-head tiebreaker was rendered moot by the 2-2 split. The next applicable tiebreaker: record against the Western Conference. Denver has the edge there by a comfortable margin.
And as a result, if the Nuggets and Clippers both win Sunday to finish in a fourth-place tie, Game 1 between the teams will be played in Denver, not in Los Angeles. Stan Kroenke will owe the NBA a thank you note.
