Nvidia earnings live updates: Stock dips despite earnings beat amid sky-high expectations

Nvidia reported earnings that saw revenue and EPS come in stronger than Wall Street forecasts, though the stock fell 2% amid high expectations.

Nvidia earnings live updates: Stock dips despite earnings beat amid sky-high expectations
nvidia stocks
  • Nvidia reported third-quarter earnings on Wednesday.
  • The chipmaking giant reported revenue and earnings per share that beat consensus estimates.
  • Nvidia stock fell 2% in volatile after-hours trading ahead of its 5 p.m. ET call with analysts.

Nvidia reported third-quarter earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.

The company reported revenue for the period of $35.08 billion, beating the consensus analyst estimate of $33.25 billion.

Nvidia also forecast fourth-quarter sales of $37.5 billion, plus or minus 2%, lining up with estimates of $37.1 billion.

The chipmaking giant said production for its Blackwell chip — its follow-up to the wildly popular Hopper chip favored by many Big Tech companies — will continue ramping up into fiscal 2026.

"Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference," Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in the earnings release.

Nvidia CFO Colette Kress said that demand for Blackwell "is expected to exceed supply for several quarters in fiscal 2026."

Nvidia's stock fell 2% in volatile after-hours trading shortly after the results. The stock dropped 1% during regular trading on Wednesday, though it is up 194% so far in 2024.

Nvidia 'successfully executed mask change' to reach full Blackwell production, CFO says.

Nvidia shopped 13,000 GPU samples to customers in the third quarter, including one of the first engineering samples.

She says demand for the chip "is staggering," and the company is "racing to scale supply" to meet the demand.

CFO Colette Kress highlights 'another record quarter.'

Kress also mentions data center revenue hitting a new quarterly record of $30.8 billion.

Here we go: Nvidia's analyst call is kicking off!

CEO Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress are on the call, which opens with some prepared remarks about the company's performance over the third quarter. The execs will then field questions from Wall Street analysts.

Emarketer analyst reacts to earnings

Emarketer technology analyst Jacob Bourne tells BI that Nvidia continues to show its dominance in AI chip demand, but "critical questions" remain around Blackwell's production and customer concentration.

Bourne says Nvidia's expansion into areas including digital twins and autonomous vehicles "shows promising diversification" but also strong dependance on certain customers.

"Despite Nvidia's technological leadership through CUDA and its first-mover advantage in AI infrastructure, there's little room for execution missteps in 2025," Bourne says. "Particularly given uncertainties around Blackwell's rollout and increasing competition from both AMD and key customers' in-house chip development efforts."

Nvidia beats 3rd-quarter revenue forecast — but Q4 guidance fails to top the most sky-high expectations

3rd quarter

  • Revenue: $35.08 billion, +94% y/y, estimate $33.25 billion

    • Data center revenue: $30.8 billion vs. $14.51 billion y/y, estimate $29.14 billion
    • Gaming revenue: $3.3 billion, +15% y/y, estimate $3.06 billion
    • Professional Visualization revenue: $486 million, +17% y/y, estimate $477.7 million
    • Automotive revenue: $449 million, +72% y/y, estimate $364.5 million
  • Adjusted gross margin: 75% vs. 75% y/y, estimate 75%
  • Adjusted operating expenses: $3.05 billion, +50% y/y, estimate $2.99 billion
  • Adjusted operating income: $23.28 billion vs. $11.56 billion y/y, estimate $21.9 billion
  • Adjusted EPS: 81c, estimate 74c

4th quarter guidance

Revenue: $37.5 billion, plus/minus 2%, estimate $37.1B

Source: Bloomberg

Nvidia stock dips 2% ahead of earnings report
Nvidia stock price

Nvidia stock was down 2% heading into its third-quarter earnings report.

The intra-day decline was more than triple the Nasdaq's 0.6% decline, and far outpaced the S&P 500's 0.4% dip.

The options market is pricing in an 8% swing in Nvidia stock
Nvidia logo with person on phone

The options market implies an 8% swing in Nvidia stock in either direction after it reports its earnings results later today.

If realized, the swing would imply a $300 billion gain or loss in market value for the AI giant. Nvidia has a market valuation of about $3.53 trillion as of Wednesday afternoon.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives expects another 'Drop the Mic' report

Long-time Nvidia bull Dan Ives of Wedbush expects Nvidia to deliver the goods when it reports earnings on Wednesday.

"We expect another drop the mic performance from Nvidia tomorrow after the bell as right now Jensen & Co. are the only game in town with $1 trillion+ of AI Cap-Ex on the way for the next few years with Nvidia's GPUs the new oil and gold in this world," Ives said in a Tuesday note.

Ives said he expects Nvidia to beat both revenue and guidance estimates by $2 billion.

"Blackwell production and demand appear robust and we expect very bullish commentary from Jensen on the conference call which will be a focus of the Street that sends the bears back into their caves and hibernation mode," Ives said.

Ives added that he is encouraged by the "cloud numbers and AI data points" offered by cloud hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet during their recent earnings calls.

One analyst expects Nvidia's sky-high profit margins to persist
Jensen Huang speaking on stage

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kunjan Sobhani said in a recent note that he expects Nvidia's profit margins to remain well above the 70% level, which is high for a hardware manufacturer.

"Gross margin is likely to decline as much as expected in 4Q yet remain comfortably above 73%," Sobhani said.

"Nvidia is likely to solidly exceed 3Q revenue consensus more than it did in the past two quarters and the company will likely raise 4Q guidance, driven by greater adoption of its Hopper family, even as hyperscaler customers await the Blackwell ramp-up in 2025," Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kunjan Sobhani said in a recent note.

Sobhani highlighted that Blackwell delay concerns were likely solved in the third-quarter, setting up the expectation that shipments "to key customers" will begin in the fourth-quarter.

"Increased capex guidance from hyperscalers has further boosted confidence in near-term sales. We expect small volume shipments of Blackwell in fiscal 4Q, reaching full speed in 1Q26, though supply remains constrained," Sobhani said.

Goldman Sachs believes Nvidia is still seeing strong demand for its Hopper-based GPUs

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said they're hyper-focused on Nvidia's guidance for the fourth quarter, which they expect should confirm their bullish thesis on the stock.

They added that they expect the company's "break out" quarter to be the first quarter of 2025 as the Blackwell product launch ramps up.

Goldman Sachs expects Nvidia to deliver $34.3 billion in revenue for the third quarter, with adjusted earnings per share at $0.79, which is above consensus estimates.

"We expect strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper-based GPUs (i.e. H100 and particularly the H200) and Spectrum-X (i.e. Ethernet-based Networking product) to drive strong double-digit (%) Data Center revenue growth," Goldman Sachs said.

The strong expected earnings results, combined with Nvidia's current valuation, suggest to Goldman that the stock should perform well going forward.

Goldman Sachs rates Nvidia at "Buy" with a $150 price target.

CFRA Research says investors should temper expectations
Jensen Huang wih Nvidia hardware

According to CFRA Research analyst Angelo Zino, investors should manage expectations around guidance for Nvidia's highly anticipated Blackwell launch.

"We caution investors to temper expectations for Blackwell inclusion for the Jan-Q outlook (we conservatively look for $3B-$5B in sales), limiting upside to consensus views in the near term as NVDA likely takes a somewhat conservative stance to provide itself with a buffer," Zino said in a recent note.

Still, Zino expects Blackwell chips will be sold out for much of 2025.

"We expect Blackwell to be supply constrained through CY 25, given heightened demand from hyperscalers to support next-generation data centers. In addition to Blackwell expectations/performance concerns that will likely dominate NVDA's Q&A session on the call, we expect investors to dissect any comments on tariffs/Sovereign AI after Trump's victory," Zino said.

CFRA Research rates Nvidia at "Buy" with a $160 price target.

Nvidia's consensus third-quarter revenue estimate is $33.25 billion.

3rd quarter

  • Revenue estimate: $33.25 billion

    • Data center revenue estimate: $29.14 billion
    • Gaming revenue estimate: $3.06 billion
    • Professional Visualization revenue estimate: $477.7 million
    • Automotive revenue estimate: $364.4 million
  • Adjusted gross margin estimate: 75%
  • R&D expenses estimate: $3.34 billion
  • Adjusted operating expenses estimate: $2.99 billion
  • Adjusted operating income estimate: $21.9 billion
  • Adjusted EPS estimate: 74c

4th quarter

  • Revenue estimate: $37.1 billion
  • Adjusted gross margin estimate: 73.5%
  • Adjusted operating expenses estimate: $3.21 billion

Source: Bloomberg

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