Renck: Broncos will beat the Colts because they finally have head coach who can win a big game

This has been the hardest thing to admit for eight years, and now it is the easiest thing for Broncos Country to read. It is obvious. There remains no reason to deny it.

The Broncos finally have a coach who can win a big game. Thank you, Sean Payton.

It’s OK to say it aloud. Tell a friend. And it will feel even better when the Broncos beat the Colts on Sunday. Payton will meet the moment.

It was not true last season when Payton’s in-game acumen required WD-40. But it is undeniably true now.

No game this weekend has more at stake.

Win and the Broncos will run away and hide from the Colts and increase their odds of reaching the playoffs to roughly 90 percent. Lose and they dip to around 40 percent, leaving them likely passed on the final lap by either the Colts or Dolphins.

The Broncos collapsed in a similar spot last Christmas Eve against the Patriots. The coach is the same. But he is different. Payton won’t let the Broncos lose. Not at home. Not with everything this team has done.

Choke against the Colts? No chance.

Payton has been revived by this group, by the youth, by the hunger and emotional investment. The Broncos boast multiple captains. Quarterback Bo Nix is among them. But the onus is not on the rookie to raise his volume — or unleash profanities — because there is one voice that matters.

“Bo doesn’t need to over talk, that’s for sure. He doesn’t coach when there is no reason to. Why? I think Sean is such a great leader that we all buy into that message. The message is clear from the start from the top,” right tackle Mike McGlinchey explained. “Our job is to facilitate the coach’s message.”

Their execution articulates the job Payton has done better than the 8-5 record. While the Broncos are viewed suspiciously nationally because their resume includes one victory against a team with a winning record, they beat inferior opponents. You know the list: the Jets, the NFC South and Cleveland Browns.

Payton wins games he is supposed to win. It was the truth before last season. And it is the case again.

It sounds easy. But since Super Bowl 50 it has been the equivalent of hiking Mount Evans in Crocs. Starting with an overtime loss to the Chiefs eight years ago, the Broncos have dissolved before our eyes in a handful of must-win games.

Payton added his name to the list against the Patriots with alarmingly poor clock management. In Year Two, he is the first coach to look like he knows what he is doing since Gary Kubiak in 2016. That represents the franchise’s last winning record. Sunday, Payton will end the streak of seven straight losing seasons.

Last year there was too much drama involving Payton and Russell Wilson. It boiled over on the sidelines at Detroit and manifested into a benching after the Patriots loss. Wilson learned during the bye week he was no longer wanted.

Sometimes excuses are reasons, and I believe the disconnect between the two most important people on gameday created a bad vibe, playing a role in the Patriots meltdown and the overall failure to meet expectations.

This year the coach and quarterback, philosophically, are not distant strangers. The players feel as close as brothers. And Payton is in concert with Nix.

Today, Payton is a more complete version of himself, of the coach who won a Super Bowl with the New Orleans Saints. His decisions have worked, from going young at center and receiver to providing Vance Joseph freedom to employ an attacking defense. The pressure is on Sunday to pull the right levers, to resist the gravitational pull to pass too much. Humble suggestion: Feed Audric Estime more in obvious running downs.

While Bill Belichick was disgusted with the NFL — Or was it the other way around? — the coaching-centric model still works. We see it in Kansas City with Andy Reid. We see it Pittsburgh with Mike Tomlin. And we see it in Denver with Payton.

Forget the offensive playsheet, Payton wins behind the scenes with the structure he creates — players know what to expect — and the tone he strikes. The latter changes depending on the opponent, and the message was clear this week. The Broncos are running into the storm with eyes wide open. The players came across as focused, not nervous.

They believe, feeding off Payton’s confidence, if not bravado.

This is not last year’s team. Or last year’s Payton. Those were players and a leader suffering from imposter syndrome. They were not ready for the spotlight. Payton included.

Now, Payton has more of his guys. He is in his element. This is Payton’s biggest game in Denver. It won’t be his last.

The Broncos are going to win not in spite of a coach, but because of him.

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