Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as investors assess rate outlook after new inflation data

• US stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as traders took inflation data and the outlook for rates.
• Inflation rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% on a yearly basis, in-line with expectations.
• Traders see a rate cut in December, with the outlook for a January cut less certain.

The latest inflation data dented some of the momentum of the post-election stock rally, with traders focusing on the latest consumer price index reading at its implications for rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up slightly, while the S&P 500 ended the day nearly flat. Bond yields were little changed, with the 10-year Treasury yield up one basis point to 4.449%.

Inflation was slightly higher year-over-year in October compared to the prior month, but was on par with economists' expectations. Consumer prices rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% on an annual basis, higher than last month's 2.4% increase.

Investors solidified bets on another rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting. Markets see an 82% chance that the central bank will trim interest rates another quarter-point next month, up from 59% on Tuesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Traders are less certain about another rate cut in January. The odds of another 25 basis point cut at the Fed's January meeting have dropped to 29%, down from 69% a month ago.

"Inflation data mostly support another rate cut at the Fed's December decision," Bill Adams, the chief economist at Comerica Bank, said in a note. "The Fed will wait until they have more clarity about the timing and scope of policy changes from the next President and Congress before reacting to them."

"The Fed wants to avoid the mistakes of the past by prematurely easing and risking a second wave of inflation, so we'd expect the FOMC to take this risk seriously," Jason Pride, the chief of investment strategy & research at Glenmede, said in a note. "This doesn't take a rate cut off the table for December, but it's certainly not a slam dunk."

The rally fueled by Trump's election began to stumble, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edging slightly into the red.

Crypto markets, though, continued to get a boost after Elon Musk, a close ally of Trump, was appointed as co-head of the Department of Government Efficiency, or "DOGE."

Dogecoin spiked another 15% on the news, while bitcoin rose as much as 6% before paring its gains, surpassing the $90,000 threshold for the first time ever before dipping back below to about $88,000 later in the day.

Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:

• S&P 500: 5,985.38, up 0.02%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 43,958.19, up 0.11% (+47.21 points)
• Nasdaq composite: 19,230.74, down 0.26%

Here's what else is going on:

• Here's what people are betting in prediction markets now that the election is over.
• Nvidia is approaching its iPhone moment with its Blackwell chip, and the stock could soar another 25%, an analyst said.
• Trump could push US debt to levels that can't be ignored within his first year in office, according to BlackRock's Rick Rieder.

In commodities, bonds, and crypto:

• West Texas Intermediate crude oil dipped 0.09% to $68.08 a barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.46% to $71.95 a barrel.
• Gold slipped 0.87% to $2,575.98 an ounce.
• The 10-year Treasury yield was up one basis point to 4.449%
• Bitcoin slipped to $88,615.