The biggest American sporting event of the year has billions of dollars riding on it

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Good morning! That's especially true for federal workers who haven't decided on their deferred resignation offers. A federal judge delayed the deadline, which was supposed to be yesterday, until at least Monday.

In the meantime, a Trump administration official said more than 40,000 workers have taken the deal.

In today's big story, the Super Bowl is this weekend, and there's more at stake than just the NFL championship.

What's on deck

Markets: Roblox stock price fell off a cliff yesterday.

Tech: Amazon's CEO points the finger at "capacity constraints" across its data centers.

Business: Inside President Donald Trump and Elon Musk's massive overhaul of the federal workforce.

But first, are you ready for some football?

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The big story

Big game, big business

The biggest American sporting event of the year has billions of dollars riding on it across multiple industries.

Just like Sunday's game, let's break it down into four quarters:

First quarter — The ads. A 30-second spot this year can run you more than $8 million. At that price, and in such a politically charged environment, companies are playing it safe. Expect a healthy dose of nostalgia, A-list celebrities, and laughs.

That's not to say no one wants to go out on a limb. Instacart's chief marketing officer Laura Jones spoke to BI about the risks (and anxiety) of creating the brand's first Super Bowl commercial.

Second quarter — The broadcast. This year, Fox has the honor of hosting what's traditionally the most-watched US television broadcast of the year. Tom Brady will be on the call, spotlighting the NFL legend who has faced criticism during his first year in the booth.

Fox-owned free streaming service Tubi will also simulcast the game in another big step for the rise of free TV. Tubi marketing chief Nicole Parlapiano told BI the game is a chance to show viewers and advertisers the streamer, which said it reached 97 million monthly active users last year, is in its "credibility era."

Halftime — The music feud. Kendrick Lamar headlines the halftime show, and his selection came with some controversy. It's also another twist to the ongoing beef between Lamar and Drake and the latter's criticism of the music-streaming industry.

Third quarter — The bets. Sportsbooks have had a tough NFL season, as betting favorites have largely won, which typically means gambling companies lose. But, with as much as $1.4 billion expected to be legally wagered on Sunday's game, sportsbooks have plenty of opportunities to make up for it. (The Kansas City Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles.)

Gambling companies are even looking to appeal to Swifties with a slew of branded bets for the superstar. But if you're looking to bet on love, try again. You can't legally bet on Travis Kelce proposing to Taylor Swift in the US.

Fourth quarter — The influencers. There's never a shortage of high-profile people at the big game, as it's a staple of the ultrawealthy's annual calendar. Bradley Cooper and Kevin Hart (Eagles) and Paul Rudd and Melissa Etheridge (Chiefs) are some of the notable celebrity fans of both teams.

New-age celebrities — influencers — are also set to make a splash this week. The NFL is reportedly planning to host 150 influencers this weekend. The league will look to leverage its followings and tap into younger generations that might consume the game across social media channels instead of the traditional broadcast.

News brief

Top headlines

• Elon Musk's newest job title is literally 'unlisted.'
• How Trump's plans for federal workers and spending could derail Washington's office recovery.
• Why Friday's jobs report could cause widespread confusion.
• The head of the FEC is defying Trump's attempt to fire her.

• four years.

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  3 things in markets

  

  1. The secretive world of Wall Street technology is finally opening up. Wall Street is embracing open-source technology — non-proprietary software that allows any developer to view, collaborate on, or modify the code behind it. It's a stark shift from the secretive and protective nature finance is known for. Leveraging open source is also cost-efficient and could make firms more nimble in the long run.

  2. Treasury secretary clarifies Trump's plan to lower costs. According to Scott Bessent, the president isn't focused on targeting the Fed to lower interest rates. Instead, they're both focused on the 10-year Treasury yield. That's a big vibe shift from Trump's recent aggressive stance toward Jerome Powell and the central bank.

  3. A bad day for Roblox. The video game platform's stock took a hit after reporting mixed fourth-quarter earnings. Daily active users are down, with analysts saying the dip could stem from the cleanup of bots and inactive accounts. That's left investors on the edge of their seats as Roblox has yet to break even.

  ---

  3 things in tech

  

  1. Amazon reports a strong earnings beat. The cloud giant beat Wall Street estimates in Q4, but its guidance was lighter than expected, which caused the stock to dip in after-hours trading. On the earnings call, Amazon said it would keep spending billions on AI infrastructure in 2025. And CEO Andy Jassy said AWS is being held back by capacity constraints.

  2. A unit of Alphabet wants out of the insurance business. Verily, Alphabet's life science group, entered an agreement to sell its insurance subsidiary to Elevance Health. Granular offers stop-loss insurance and specializes in leveraging data science to help employers mitigate costs and risk. Verily is cutting back on projects and focusing on AI as it grows apart from Alphabet.

  3. What Y Combinator is looking for in its spring applicants. The storied accelerator's three-month program for early-stage companies includes a $500,000 investment and Stripe, DoorDash, and Airbnb among its alums. For Spring 2025, YC is going all-in on AI applications, from AI agents to a new AI app store.

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  3 things in business

  

  1. The first 17 days of DOGE and Trump 2.0. Elon Musk and President Trump are taking Silicon Valley's "move fast and break things" motto to heart as they work to remake the federal workforce. Trump signed 26 executive orders on his first day back in office, ranging from a return-to-office mandate for federal employees to DOGE's establishment. Meanwhile, government workers are scrambling to navigate a whirlwind of buyouts and shifting circumstances.

  2. Who is the mysterious crisis guru suing Blake Lively? Jed Wallace sued the "It Ends With Us" actor for defamation, claiming she caused him "millions of dollars" in reputational and emotional harm. Lively had accused Wallace of assisting her costar Justin Baldoni in mounting a digital smear campaign against her, which both men have denied. Little is known about the Texas crisis consultant, but a 2021 lawsuit filed by "Jackass" star Bam Margera claims Wallace oversaw "inhumane" substance-abuse treatment that Margera said left him "a shell of his former self." Wallace denied the claims, and the suit was eventually settled.

  3. Higher standards than ever for a healthcare IPO. With interest rates expected to drop this year, founders are hoping for another wave of healthcare IPOs. But investors say they'll have to work a lot harder to go public — the last IPO class in 2021 made a dismal showing, often with plummeting valuations.

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  In other news

• Trump's old-school leadership style might not work well long-term.
• A former tech employee who quit to work on side hustles remotely explains how he used 'geo-arbitrage' to save six figures and hit 'Coast FIRE.'
• Cash is king for Gen Z over installment payment services like BNPL.
• These eight stocks could be the biggest losers as DeepSeek clouds the outlook for tech.
• Why Russia's economy may be even worse off after the war in Ukraine ends.

• OpenAI challenger Mistral launches revamped AI life and work assistant.

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What's happening today

• USAID employees placed on administrative leave.
• Hearing in Democratic states' lawsuit challenging President Trump's executive order to end birthright citizenship.
• Sentencing for Nima Momeni, man charged with fatal stabbing of Cash App founder Bill Lee.
• Bureau of Labor Statistics releases monthly employment data.

• Samsung's new Galaxy S25 smartphones available.

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The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Amanda Yen, associate editor, in New York. Elizabeth Casolo, fellow, in Chicago.