The effort to prevent Colorado voters from being asked to approve tax collections over revenue projections
Plus: New faces at the Colorado Capitol. What voters think of Jared Polis and Donald Trump. Crisanta Duran for … something.
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Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: Colorado lawmakers are considering going back to the ballot for approval to keep excess tax revenue from a program voters just approved.
This time, they’re revisiting Proposition FF, a 2022 measure voters approved that slashed tax breaks for high-income earners to fund a school meals program.
Obligatory Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights explanation: Tax increases in Colorado require a vote of the people under the state constitution. But TABOR also requires tax ballot measures to provide voters an estimate of how much money the tax will generate.
When the tax generates more than expected — which legislative forecasters say may happen roughly half the time under current practice — any dollars collected above the estimate must be refunded to taxpayers. Unless, that is, lawmakers go back to the ballot and ask again.
In its first year, the Healthy School Meals for All program is expected to generate $127 million, according to a Joint Budget Committee memo. That’s $26 million more than Proposition FF’s initial estimates requested from voters.
Earlier this month, the Joint Budget Committee voted unanimously to draft a bill to refer a measure to next year’s ballot that would allow the state to retain the additional dollars.
If the full legislature approves in the 2025 session, the school meals program would mark at least the fourth time in the past decade lawmakers have gone back to the ballot to keep excess revenue collected beyond the initial TABOR estimate. In 2015, voters allowed the state to retain excess recreational marijuana tax dollars through Proposition BB. And in 2023, voters approved Proposition II, allowing the state to spend tobacco tax dollars collected in excess of what was forecast.
This year, Colorado voters passed Proposition JJ, letting the state keep all the sports betting tax revenue it collects.
Such elections typically cruise to passage and even win more votes than the initial tax increase. But lawmakers say they’d like to prevent them in the first place.
“I am sick of having to go back to voters every time and saying, ‘Hey, this thing you voted on to let us do, can we actually just keep doing that? Please?’ ” JBC Chair Jeff Bridges, a Democratic senator from Greenwood Village, told his colleagues.
To reduce the chances of it happening in the future, the JBC voted to draft a bill that would require Colorado Legislative Council Staff to use higher — but still “reasonable” — estimates when they analyze measures for the state voter guide, known as the Blue Book.
Currently, lawmakers typically provide legislative staff’s midpoint estimate to voters — meaning it should have a 50/50 chance of being too low.
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FUTURE FUNDING WORRIES
The program created by Proposition FF, which offers free school meals to all public school students, has proved wildly popular, with school district officials across the state considering it a major success story.
School officials say it has helped reduce any associated stigma, leading more students to eat the meals, boosting their nutrition and — advocates say — their educational performance.
But with demand — and costs — exceeding initial expectations, JBC staff and lawmakers worry that even if voters allow the state to keep the extra revenue, it still might not be enough. Even with the extra dollars that a second vote would generate, the program may still be as much as $20 million short of what it’s projected to cost next budget year, according to JBC documents.
“I’m very worried that we will wind up referring another question to the voters that doesn’t adequately capture (the funding) that needs to be captured to fulfill the promises being made to voters,” Rep. Shannon Bird, a Westminster Democrat, said at the budget meeting.
That could leave lawmakers facing another awkward tax decision: go back to voters a third time, or cut other parts of the state budget to pay for a program that voters believed was paid for when they created it.
“This seems to be a thing that we consistently do where we tell the voters of Colorado, vote yes on this thing and we’ll be good forever on this thing you care about, and then it turns out that wasn’t the case,” Bridges said. “We say, ‘vote for this, you’ll get this,’ and then you don’t actually get that.”
DO THE MATH
21
The members of the Colorado House of Representatives in 2025 who will be completely new to the legislature.
When the current legislature was sworn in two years ago, there were 31 members of the House who were brand new to the legislature. That number jumped to 32 soon into the 2023 legislative session when state Rep. Lorena Garcia, D-Adams County, was sworn in after being appointed by a vacancy committee. It grew to 33 when then-Louisville City Councilman Kyle Brown was selected to replace then-state Rep. Tracey Bernett, who resigned on the first day of the lawmaking term that year as she faced criminal charges for allegedly lying about her residence to run for reelection.
There was only one member of the Senate — Democrat Janice Marchman — who was brand new to the legislature when the General Assembly was sworn in two years ago.
Next year, the only member of the Senate who will be new to the legislature is Republican state Sen.-elect Scott Bright.
So, in total, 22% of the General Assembly will be new to the legislature when they are sworn in next year. The one asterisk is Republican state Rep. Dan Woog of Erie, who is returning to the legislature after winning on Nov. 5 after being unseated in 2022. He’s not included in our 21-count in the House.
The number of legislators new to the General Assembly could increase as vacancy committees select replacements for state Sens. Janet Buckner, Chris Hansen and Kevin Van Winkle, who are resigning Jan. 9, one day after the 2025 lawmaking term begins.
There are state representatives who are vying to replace Buckner and Hansen, and if they are picked to fill the Senate openings, they would then be replaced by a vacancy committee. A former state representative is seeking appointment to Van Winkle’s seat, as are a number of people who would be brand new to the Capitol.
ANALYSIS: There’s a learning curve at the legislature. Every lawmaker who is new to the building presents a challenge to caucus leadership and their colleagues as they navigate the ins and outs of the Capitol.
That being said, some of the folks joining the General Assembly for the first time next year aren’t strangers to the Gold Dome. State Rep.-elect Dusty Johnson, R-Fort Morgan, for instance, was previously a legislative aide.
WOMEN IN THE LEGISLATURE
The majority of the 100-member legislature — 52% — will be women when the General Assembly is sworn in Jan. 8. (Barring no last-minute resignations.)
There are set to be 38 women in the House, or 58% of the chamber, and 14 women in the Senate, or 40% of the chamber.
The share of women in the legislature could shift depending on what happens with the vacancy committee appointments in the Senate and any subsequent ones in the House.
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THE POLITICAL TICKER
CRISANTA DURAN
Former Colorado House Speaker Crisanta Duran, a Denver Democrat, keeps hinting that she’s interested in running for statewide office in 2026.
“I am considering electoral options & have not made any final decisions,” she posted on social media in response to a 9News story about the next Democratic gubernatorial primary in Colorado. “I anticipate the upcoming elections will be about more than name recognition or favorability & will focus on the courage & ability to lead solutions forward for the people of CO.”
Duran launched a challenge to Democratic U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette in 2020, but dropped her bid before the primary election.
ELECTION 2026
Democrat John Mikos of Monument filed Nov. 26 to run for Colorado treasurer in 2026. He previously served as chairman of the El Paso County Democratic Party.
Jefferson County Treasurer Jerry DiTullio, a Democrat, is also running in 2026 to be state treasurer. Current Treasurer Dave Young, a Democrat, is term-limited.
KENT THIRY
The amount of money Kent Thiry, the wealthy former CEO of the Denver-based dialysis giant DaVita, directly invested in Colorado Voters First, the issue committee that supported Proposition 131, is less than originally thought.
The committee refunded Thiry $866,630 on Nov. 21, reducing his final tab to $5.1 million from roughly $6 million. The $866,630 repayment wasn’t to reimburse a loan, as a campaign finance line item suggests, according to a spokesman. The money simply wasn’t spent and thus was returned to Thiry. (Thiry confirmed the $6 million number to The Colorado Sun on Nov. 8. The refund wasn’t made clear until his staff flagged it for us this week.)
If you take out the Thiry repayment from Colorado Voters First’s final spending total, it reduces the committee’s total spending to $17.6 million from $18.5 million.
Thiry may have given more to Colorado Voters First, through Unite America. He cochairs the board of the nonprofit, which doesn’t disclose its donors. Unite America, based in Denver, gave $5.8 million to Colorado Voters First.
Thiry separately donated large sums to the campaign supporting several other measures on the November ballot. He also donated $1.24 million to an independent expenditure committee that sought to influence the outcome of a group of legislative primaries this year.
Proposition 131 would have changed most of the state’s primaries so candidates from all parties ran against each other, with the top four vote-getters advancing to a ranked choice general election. It failed by a margin of 7 percentage points.
READ MORE
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THIS WEEK’S PODCAST: Colorado’s presidential electors cast their ballots for Kamala Harris
POLL
What voters thinks of Jared Polis and Donald Trump
Gov. Jared Polis remains popular among Colorado voters, according to the results of a poll conducted at the beginning of the month.
The survey was conducted by Magellan Strategies and Keating Research from Dec. 4-9 among 800 registered voters in the state. It had a margin of error of 3.46 percentage points. The poll was conducted on behalf of the nonprofit Healthier Colorado.
Fifty-two percent of those polled said they have a favorable opinion of Polis, while 40% said they had an unfavorable opinion of him. Among Republicans who participated in the survey, that dropped to a 22% favorable opinion and a 73% unfavorable opinion.
President-elect Donald Trump isn’t well liked by Colorado voters, according to the poll. It found that 43% of registered voters have a favorable view of him while 56% have an unfavorable view of the Republican.
GOP voters in the state, however, overwhelmingly like Trump, with 94% saying they have a favorable view of him and just 4% saying they have an unfavorable view of him.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
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