The top storylines The Colorado Sun will be following as election results roll in

As the results roll in tonight, here are the storylines the Colorado Sun politics team will be watching most closely.

• The nation’s eyes will be on Colorado’s 8th Congressional District today, where Democratic U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo is running for reelection against Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans. Some $30 million has been spent on the race, which could determine which party controls Congress next year. Polling shows it’s razor close. If Evans wins, it would be the biggest victory for Republicans in Colorado since 2014, when Cory Gardner unseated Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Udall, the GOP took back control of the state Senate and Republicans won or defended a number of congressional and statewide contests. We might not know the outcome of this race for a few days.
• The 3rd Congressional District is where we think there’s the best chance of an election night surprise. Yes, the district leans in the GOP’s favor, but Republican Jeff Hurd is a first-time candidate who hasn’t made much of a name for himself since launching his campaign in August 2023. His Democratic opponent, former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch, has effectively been running for the seat for nearly three years. He ran in 2022 against Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert and lost by 546 votes. And he has used his Mount Elbert-size campaign war chest to dominate the airwaves heading into Election Day. If Frisch wins, he’ll be the first Democrat to represent the 3rd District since U.S. Rep. John Salazar was unseated in 2010 — and his victory would improve Democrats’ chances of retaking the House.
• Proposition 131 would shake Colorado’s political landscape to its core if it passes today,  changing most of the state’s primaries so candidates from all parties run against each other. The top four vote-getters would advance to a ranked choice voting general election. Led by Kent Thiry, the wealthy former CEO of the dialysis giant DaVita, more than $16 million has poured into the effort to pass the all-candidate primary and ranked choice general election measure. If Thiry gets his way, the measure would go into effect in 2026, and this year’s election would be the last as we know it for Colorado. 
• Colorado voters have been asked many times in recent years to restrict abortion access, and each time they’ve said “no.” Amendment 79 on this year’s statewide ballot is the first time Coloradans are being asked to preserve the unrestricted abortion access that exists in the state. The initiative, which would change the state constitution, requires the support of 55% of voters to pass, which is a high bar. The measure will test just how much Colorado voters support abortion rights — and whether they’re comfortable opening the door to taxpayer funds potentially being used for the procedure in the future.
• No one was more surprised than Democrats when they won a long list of toss-up and Republican-leaning legislative districts two years ago. Today will determine whether they keep many of those seats — and whether the party secures a supermajority in both the House and Senate. The outcome of the state House and Senate contests on the ballot this year will determine the trajectory of the Colorado legislature through early 2027.

BOEBERT, BOBCATS, CANINES AND CHARTER SCHOOLS

Here are some other storylines we’ll be watching today:

• The race in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District may be a lot closer than it has been in years past, but, assuming conventional wisdom holds, Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert likely will secure her third term in Congress today. Because Boebert is Boebert, and everyone in Colorado politics remembers the surprise of her close shave in 2022, you can’t totally write off Democrat Trisha Calvarese, who has been raising truckloads of cash. A win is a win is a win, but if Calvarese, a first-time candidate, gets within 10 percentage points of Boebert, that will mark a major underperformance for the congresswoman in Colorado’s most Republican congressional district.
• The Western Slope is still steamed by Colorado voters’ 2020 decision to sign off on wolf reintroduction. This year, people there see Proposition 127, which would ban the hunting of mountain lions, bobcats and lynx, as another example of so-called ballot box biology. Millions of dollars have been spent in support and opposition to the measure, bankrolled by animal rights groups and conservative political nonprofits that don’t disclose their donors. We’ll be watching closely to see which counties vote for and against this initiative. 
• With so many measures on the statewide ballot this year, it can be easy to forget Proposition 129, which would create a new, state-regulated position of veterinary professional associate. But millions of dollars have been spent to influence how voters cast their ballots on this initiative, which, if it passed, would have a major effect on Colorado’s pet care landscape. With no public polling released on the measure, we have no idea what the outcome will be.
• If you ask a random person on the street about the State Board of Education, they’ve probably never heard of it before. But the panel has enormous sway over charter school development in Colorado, and the neck-and-neck race for the 8th Congressional District seat on the board will determine its charter-school posture for years to come. If Democrat Rhonda Solis wins reelection, charter schools that are rejected by local school districts likely won’t find a sympathetic ear with the State Board of Education, which has the power to overturn a local district’s denial. If Republican Yazmin Navarro wins, the pro-charter status quo is expected to remain. The State Board of Education race in the 8th District is just as competitive as the race between Caraveo and Evans, so we may not know the outcome of the contest for several days.
• Proposition 130 hasn’t gotten much attention either, but it has the chance to upend Gov. Jared Polis’ budget proposal before the Joint Budget Committee even holds its first meeting to discuss it. If it passes, the measure would require lawmakers to set aside $350 million from the state’s general fund for law enforcement recruitment, training and retention. Polis on Friday said his budget request doesn’t include any placeholders to do so. Whether Polis and the legislature would try to fund it all at once or over time, the measure’s passage would deepen the financial hole the state finds itself in.

WHAT TO WATCH THIS WEEK

• Today is Election Day! Voting ends at 7 p.m. Results will start being posted about 30 minutes after that.
• The Democratic and Republican caucuses in the House and Senate will hold leadership elections Friday. A new president of the Colorado Senate will be elected at that time. Currently running for the job are Democratic Sens. James Coleman and Julie Gonzales, both of Denver. Senate Democrats will also elect a new member to the Joint Budget Committee.
• The JBC meets Nov. 12 to begin work on the state’s 2025-26 fiscal year budget, which will take effect July 1.

THE BIG STORY

Last-minute misleading messaging bombards Colorado voters

Colorado voters were bombarded with some misleading messaging in the lead-up to Election Day.

Here are a few questionable campaign messages we were tipped off to in recent days:

• A text message sent to voters suggests that Democratic U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper has endorsed Amendment 80, which would place a right to school choice in the state constitution. It includes an image of Hickenlooper and an out-of-context quote of him talking about apprenticeships. It’s unclear who sent the text message, as it does not include a disclosure. On social media, Hickenlooper posted that he doesn’t support the measure. “This amendment would harm our public school system,” he said. This isn’t the first time supporters of Amendment 80 have sent out misleading texts.
• Save Western Culture, a super PAC that has been seeking to undermine Republican congressional candidates across the country, sent a mailer to voters in the 8th Congressional District labeling GOP state Rep. Gabe Evans a “RINO” — or “Republican-in-name-only.” “Gabe Evans is a threat to traditional values and our independent way of life,” says the mailer, which appears aimed at boosting Democratic U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo’s reelection chances. “Colorado can’t afford more failed Leftist policies.” The PAC formed in October in a way that allows it to hide its donors until after Election Day. Evans is a conservative Republican.
• The Working Families Party, a progressive group, sent out a text linking Pueblo County Commissioner Eppie Griego, who is unaffiliated and running for reelection, to Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert in an underhanded way of trying to erode his support. The text appears to be celebrating the link between Boebert and Griego. “Conservative unaffiliated Eppie Greigo is the MAGA choice for county commissioner!” the text says. But the Working Families Party is hardly a friend of Boebert. The real purpose of the message is to hurt Griego’s chances. The Working Families Party has endorsed Democrat Miles Lucero in the race.

THE POLITICAL TICKER

COLORADO SECRETARY OF STATE

Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold is still feeling the heat after it came to light last week that a civil servant in her office had accidentally posted state voting system passwords online. But questions remain about why Griswold’s team wasn’t alerted to the problem sooner.

The person who tipped off the Colorado GOP to the error wrote in an Oct. 27 sworn affidavit that they accessed the spreadsheet containing the passwords on three occasions —once in August and twice in October — before they were taken down when the Secretary of State’s Office realized the mistake. It was only after the spreadsheet was removed, however, that the person alerted the GOPto the passwords’ existence.

The Colorado GOP redacted the affidavit to remove any identifying information about the tipster. But Shawn Smith, an election conspiracy theorist, testified in court Monday that he was the person who sent the affidavit to the Colorado GOP.

It’s unclear when Smith figured out the spreadsheet contained the passwords.

The Colorado Secretary of State’s Office said its investigation of the mistake determined that the passwords were added to a hidden tab on a spreadsheet by a staff member who left their job at the office before the accidental posting took place. The spreadsheet was posted online June 21 and remained there until it was taken down Oct. 24.

Griswold’s office said in a statement that it “is engaging a well-regarded law firm to conduct an outside investigation into the event, determining how it happened, how it could be prevented in the future, and any recommendations for improvement of practices and procedures.”

“Once the investigation has been finalized, the department will release any findings as the law permits,” the statement said. “The department will require additional cybersecurity training with all staff, including password management and security procedures.”

COLORADO LEGISLATURE

Democrats on the Legislative Audit Committee blocked the panel from holding a special meeting to review the voting system password leak, according to Rep. Lisa Frizell, a Castle Rock Republican and the committee’s chairwoman.

The committee has four Democrats and four Republicans on it. The panel’s rules require five votes to convene a special meeting.

The committee is next scheduled to meet Dec. 9, and Frizell plans to ask the committee at that time to approve a formal audit of the password mistake.

KAMALA HARRIS

Kamala Harris’ campaign appears to feel very good about its chances in Colorado.

Members of the vice president’s presidential campaign who were stationed in the Centennial State were moved to Arizona, which is far more competitive, in the closing days of the election. Some key staff remain in Colorado, however, and the campaign is still staffing a voter protection hotline in the state.

Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has effectively had no presidential campaign operating in Colorado this year.

BALLOT MEASURE SPENDING

Ballot measures across the country attracted over $1.21 billion in reported campaign spending to persuade voters this election cycle, approaching the $1.24 billion disclosed in 2020, according to a Ballotpedia analysis.

The $42 million reported spent on Colorado’s statewide ballot measures doesn’t quite crack the top 5 states. It’s practically pocket change compared to California, the perennial leader in ballot initiative spending. Campaigns spent $375 million in the Golden State so far this cycle, down from $725 million in 2022.

READ MORE

• To close $1B budget gap, Colorado’s governor proposes Medicaid provider pay freeze, transportation fee cut and K-12 funding slowdown
• Spending on Colorado’s 14 statewide ballot measures surpasses $42 million
• Nearly $13 million has been spent by state-level super PACs on Colorado legislative races this year
• A daughter of immigrants adopts a tough border message in a close House race
  — The New York Times ????
• In Colorado, local radio a key factor in securing Latino votes
  — Insider Radio
• Denver rallied behind arriving immigrants. Now its homeless population feels shortchanged.
  — ProPublica

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THE BIGGER PICTURE

• When will we know the election results? What to know about vote counting.
  — The Washington Post ????
• A Georgia election official’s months-long push to make it easier to challenge the 2024 results
  — ProPublica
• Republicans shift message on abortion, sounding more like Democrats
  — The New York Times ????
• Conspiracy theories shaped the 2024 election
  — The Washington Post ????

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PUPPY PHOTO TO GO

It’s going to be a long day —or next few days. Or weeks. Here’s a photo of Jesse’s golden retriever, Ruthie, as a puppy to help you get through it all.

• Yoga, puppies, tacos: How some Colorado voters are dealing with their election anxiety

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