Trump tariffs have iPhone users wondering: Should I upgrade now?

• Apple users have been heading to stores to upgrade ahead of potential tariff-driven price hikes.
• Donald Trump increased tariffs on China, a hub for iPhone production, to 104% beginning Wednesday.
• Tariffs on Chinese imports could increase iPhone prices by over 40%, analysts say.

Apple users are trying to get ahead of tariffs.

The crowds at Apple stores over the weekend had Black Friday vibes, a retail employee said, but shoppers weren't there for holiday gifts. President Donald Trump is in a tariff battle with China, the main country that Apple depends on for manufacturing its products.

With a 104% tariff in effect on Chinese imported goods, Apple is facing a tough decision: raise prices or find another way to offset the costs.

With iPhone prices at risk of going up, customers are flocking to their local Apple stores to upgrade now rather than later.

"It's not innovation or a broken phone that brought me to the store," 42-year-old Joseph Donnelly told Business Insider after posting about his upgrade online.

He had been planning on holding onto his iPhone 13 Pro until the iPhone 17 came out, but traded it in for an iPhone 16 Pro Max on Saturday after the tariffs were announced. Donnelly said he drew the line at paying an extra 20% or more for "an incremental improvement" on current or future models.

At the downtown Brooklyn Apple store on Tuesday, I waited around 15 minutes to talk to a team member about iPhones since they were all occupied by customers setting up their new phones, they said. When I spoke with an employee, she told me the Tuesday crowd was nothing compared to the chaos on the weekend.

As we stood around the iPhone display table, another customer, who asked not to be named, told me he was upgrading "before they get way more expensive."

"I'm just getting the cheapest one to last me a few years," he said as he played with the $599 iPhone 16e.

BI reached out to Apple, but the company declined to share data on store traffic or sales.

Before Trump added a further bump to China's tariff rate, analysts had estimated a 40% price increase on tech devices. The iPhone 16 Pro Max, for example, would go from $1,599 to just under $2,300, according to BI's previous calculations. The 104% reciprocal tariff would push its top iPhone model well over $2,300 if Apple decides to let the cost fall to consumers.

As Apple rolled out the iPhone 16 and its AI offerings in 2024, analysts predicted an upgrade supercycle. That didn't happen right away, but tariff fears could — briefly — spark an iPhone sales boom the tech industry has been discussing for nearly a year.

Donnelly said he's content with his new iPhone 16 Pro Max for the next two years, at least.

"Maybe if the tariffs end by the 20th anniversary of the iPhone in 2027, I'll probably upgrade then, too," he told BI.