Was Nuggets’ loss to Cavaliers an anomaly or trend in 3-point shooting discrepancy? Michael Malone: “They’re a superior team across the board”

CLEVELAND — Defenses don’t stump Nikola Jokic, but questions occasionally do.

If his mind is a supercomputer — as it has been likened to by so many bewildered NBA players, reporters and TV personalities — then a mathematical equation that he deems indecipherable may cause a “syntax error” message to appear.

In a defeated locker room Thursday night, in a city with horizontal snow outside and a wind chill near zero, the brain-teaser was this: How can the Nuggets make up the gap when an opponent is shooting a way higher volume of 3-pointers than them?

“I really don’t know,” Jokic said after a long pause, and then he laughed. “I really don’t know.”

In three consecutive games, the up-and-down Nuggets (11-9) have attempted exactly 24 shots from beyond the arc. In each of those three games, their opponents have attempted at least 14 more 3s than them. They’ve lost two of those three games. In the other, Golden State’s inefficient 31.6% night was just barely enough for Denver to scrape by with a 119-115 win that required an 11-point comeback in the last six minutes.

Unsurprisingly, the Nuggets rank last in 3-point attempts per game this season at 31, staying in the same ballpark in which they’ve squeeze-bunted for the last two seasons. That organizational defiance of a league-wide trend, expressed in succinct but undeniably contrarian terms by general manager Calvin Booth two months ago, actually hasn’t swallowed their season whole. It hasn’t because they rank fourth in percentage. But it overwhelms them on nights like Thursday in Cleveland, where the league leader in efficiency resides.

The Cavs (20-3) shot 46% on twice as many attempts as Denver, highlighting the extent to which the perimeter has become a two-way problem for the Nuggets. In addition to their commitment to the paint offensively, they’re allowing the eighth-most attempts per game (38.7) and the ninth-highest 3-point percentage (36.6).

“They’re a superior team across the board,” coach Michael Malone said of the Cavaliers after the 126-114 loss, and a lot of that in this particular meeting had to do with what occurred 24 feet from the basket.

“You can have a hand in a guy’s face, and he can still make it,” a more upbeat Jamal Murray said, also praising the Cavaliers. “We have guys that can do the same. They shot really well, though. It’s tough when you’re flying around and you’re scrambling. And (Evan) Mobley’s improved his shot, and guys are playing with confidence, and the guys coming off the bench that they have are coming in and shooting really well. So it’s tough. That’s the gameplan, try to get them off the line, but they’ve also got two bigs down there that command a lot of attention.”

This is how dramatic the math discrepancy got: When Malone called one his patented rage timeouts 13 seconds into the second quarter, the Nuggets were outscoring Cleveland 24-10 in the paint — playing to their identity — but losing by 13. The Cavs had just made their 10th 3-pointer in 16 tries. It came on a miscommunication on what should have been a switch by Denver’s second unit. A lapse. Like many before it and many after.

For maybe an eight-minute stretch of that quarter, the Nuggets were making their rotations with tenacity, and a 16-point deficit evaporated. They just couldn’t sustain that. Malone was unsure as to why they couldn’t.

“We’re trying to find that. Because this is who we’ve been every night,” he said. “There are stretches where we can’t get a stop, and we look like five strangers on the court together. And then we get down by 16, I call a timeout, I challenge our guys, we come out, and all of a sudden we get back to playing the kind of basketball that we need to play for 48 minutes. It’s too inconsistent. It’s too few and far between.”

Results prove that Denver doesn’t need to be 3-point-dependent on offense, that this loss smells like an outlier in that specific regard. In six games with fewer than 30 attempts before Cleveland, the Nuggets were 4-2 because they shot above 41% in all six. They’re also 5-3 in games when their opponent attempts 10 more 3s than them. Selectiveness breeds efficiency for Denver, which is often content to pass up clean 3-point looks for better looks at the rim. Case in point Thursday: Jokic faked out multiple Cavs defenders in transition by turning his head toward an open Murray on the left wing, only to fire a no-look pass to Christian Braun under the basket.

So Murray was probably fair to hesitate when asked bluntly if the Nuggets need to take more 3s in the locker room afterward.

“I don’t know how much we’re shooting. I don’t know the stats and stuff. Off feel? It just comes down to quality,” he said. “You want to shoot good ones. You don’t want to just come down and get them up just to get them up, right? So I think if we can just generate a couple more really good looks, that’ll do well for our offense. And maybe some guys can find a rhythm or change the momentum of the game, especially on the road. But other than that, I think we’re just playing the game. Just trying to make reads. … I don’t think it’s, like, a focus, though. We just want to play the right way.”

Murray is maintaining that mindset for his own sanity, to an extent, considering he’s shooting a career-low 33.3% from three through 20 games. But his “off-feel” assessment displayed an accurate feel for the situation nonetheless.

The Nuggets don’t need to keep up by matching their opponent’s 3-point attempts.

But when they attempt so few, they leave themselves with less margin for error in defending the arc. And their defense of the 3-point line hasn’t been good enough to justify their shot diet in recent games.

Certain contenders can recognize that and smell blood. Teams like Boston. Like Cleveland.

“I gave more credit to them, the way they played, and how consistent they played throughout the game, (rather) than be down on us tonight,” Murray said. “But we definitely can play better and shoot better. And we will.”

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