What we’ve learned about Broncos through 13 games: Bo Nix, Sean Payton are perfect match, Nik Bonitto’s emerging as star, and the Garett Bolles dilemma

Sean Payton didn’t listen to the critics in 2006 when he inherited a Saints team that went 3-13 the previous year and then led them to an NFC title game.

Nearly two decades later, Payton still doesn’t entertain the outside noise.

Entering his second season as Denver’s head coach, Payton knew the challenge that awaited him. The Broncos released Russell Wilson and swallowed more than half of his $85 million dead cap hit. Safety Justin Simmons, the team’s respected leader, was let go. Wide receiver Jerry Jeudy was sent to Cleveland. And there wasn’t much cap space to fill in the blanks.

But what appeared to be a rebuild with Vegas projecting Denver’s win total at 5.5 has instead turned into a rebirth. With rookie quarterback Bo Nix and a host of unproven players thrust into key roles, Payton has returned Denver to its winning ways, and he didn’t have to wait 2-3 years to do so.

“I don’t have time to spend time on that, nor do I wish to spend time on that. I understand they have a job to do and where we are selected,” Payton said during the first week of training camp. “None of that means anything. It’s stuff to talk about when the media cycle is quiet. We will get ready to play. We expect to compete and expect to win.”

Through 13 games, the Broncos have defied expectations. At 8-5, Denver sits in seventh place in the AFC with a 73% chance of making the postseason, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats’ Playoff Probability model.

Nix has played himself into the Offensive Rookie of the Year conservation after a rocky start. The former Oregon QB has thrown for 2,458 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions with an 8-3 record since Week 3. Meanwhile, Denver’s defense has turned into a juggernaut, with players like outside linebacker Nik Bonitto becoming a household name.

With four games left in the regular season, here’s what we’ve learned about the Broncos thus far:

Nix, Payton are perfect match

The first two weeks were rough, as Nix threw four interceptions and the Broncos relied heavily on the short passing game, with 67.5% of his pass attempts going fewer than 10 air yards.

But as Nix has improved, Payton’s trust in his quarterback has strengthened, leading him to open up the playbook. Through Weeks 1-9, Denver used motion on 29% of dropbacks. Since then, the Broncos have motioned on 47% of dropbacks, according to Next Gen Stats. Nix has completed 46 of 68 passes for 459 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions when Denver uses motion in the last four games.

The trust between Payton and Nix was also telling against the Browns when Nix averaged a season-high 12.5 air yards per attempt, completing 6 of 14 passes downfield (10+ air yards) for 196 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, according to Next Gen Stats.

In the Broncos’ last 11 games, their passing game is 14th in yards (2,491), 12th in total EPA (15.2) and tied for 10th in EPA per dropback (0.04). Nix has thrown the ball for 10-plus air yards on 33% of his attempts. He has a passer rating of 113 on throws of 20-plus air yards during this span.

As the Broncos’ passing attack has made strides, its has been able to put points on the board. Denver has averaged 25.4 points since Week 3 and has scored more than 25 points in five of its last seven games.

 Moss is quality CB2

Though Riley Moss hardly played as a rookie, Payton believed that he could be a quality outside cornerback in the NFL. The former Iowa standout’s speed and athleticism were noticeable during training camp, and those traits have translated into the regular season.

Moss’ emergence as CB2, opposite star cornerback Pat Surtain II, has been critical. Moss has allowed 595 yards, two touchdowns and a passer rating of 89.4 on 78 targets — third-most in the league. He also has an interception and eight passes defended in 12 starts.

Moss has proven to be difficult to create separation against. He has forced a tight window (less than 1 yard of separation) on 29.5% of his targets — the ninth-best percentage in the league with a minimum of 300 coverage snaps, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Surtain is third at 35.9%.

Moss’ value was magnified during Week 13’s win over the Browns. While he was sidelined with a knee injury, the Broncos gave up 475 passing yards — the second-most allowed by any team in a game this season. Veteran cornerback Levi Wallace, who filled in for Moss, was picked apart, giving up six catches for 151 yards, a touchdown and a passer rating of 137.5.

Denver still needs playmaking TE

The Greg Dulcich experiment didn’t go as planned.

Dulcich caught five passes for 28 yards in four games played before being a healthy scratch for nine straight contests and eventually waived. Now, the Broncos are back to square one.

This season, Denver’s tight ends have combined for 34 catches, 356 yards and three touchdowns on 53 targets. While the group has a chance to finish with better numbers than last year (39 receptions, 362 yards, four TDs), nobody has emerged as a consistent threat. Adam Trautman (nine receptions, 158 yards) had four catches for 84 yards and a touchdown against Carolina in October but has totaled 41 yards on five catches in the following five games. Lucas Krull (13 catches, 120 yards) has averaged 13.3 yards per game. And it doesn’t get any better after that.

Adding a tight end will likely be near the top of Denver’s to-do list this offseason. Looking ahead, New Orleans’ Juwan Johnson (30 catches, 313 yards, two TDs) and the New York Jets’ Tyler Conklin (33 catches, 284 yards, two TDs) are among the top unrestricted free agents in 2025. Meanwhile, Penn State tight Tyler Warren, who has 81 catches for 978 yards and six touchdowns, is worth monitoring.

Surtain II has DPOY case

After Surtain became one of the highest-paid cornerbacks in league history, he took his game to another level.

Surtain has 31 tackles, three interceptions (one pick-6) and nine passes defended. He has given up a 60.5 passer rating when targeted — fourth among cornerbacks with at least 300 coverage snaps, according to Next Gen Stats.

Surtain was named the AFC Defensive Player of the Month for November after not allowing a touchdown as the nearest defender in four games — and is likely in the Defensive Player of the Year discussion.

The former Alabama standout has matched up against the opponent’s best pass catcher every week. In Week 3’s win against Tampa Bay, he lined up against Mike Evans on 24 routes, allowing just one catch for eight yards. Against Kansas City in Week 13, he gave up two catches for 13 yards when facing DeAndre Hopkins. And when the Broncos played the Raiders on the road, Surtain lined up against rookie tight end Brock Bowers six times, allowing one catch for 9 yards on four targets. Surtain has given up 207 receiving yards — the fewest among cornerbacks with a minimum of 300 coverage snaps, according to Next Gen Stats.

Surtain’s resume is good enough to be considered for the award and he might not be the only Bronco.

Nik Bonitto has stated his case all season but needed the national spotlight to make everyone else aware. The third-year edge rusher recorded a sack and a pick-6 in Denver’s thrilling win over Cleveland on Monday Night Football.

Following Denver’s eighth win of the year, Bonitto is second in the league in sacks (11), a half of a sack below NFL leader Trey Hendrickson of Cincinnati. He also has 43 pressures and has recorded at least four in a game five times.

With five sacks in his last four games, the former Oklahoma standout just might make a strong closing argument.

Broncos face dilemma with Bolles

Garett Bolles’ performance this fall is making the Broncos’ decision this offseason even tougher.

Bolles, who is in the final year of a four-year, $68 million deal, has a projected market value of two years, $39.3 million, with an average salary of $19.64 million, according to Spotrac. And his production thus far could command such a deal.

In 476 pass-blocking snaps, Bolles has given up one sack, 24 pressures and a pressure rate of 5%. He has only eight pressures and no sacks in the last five games. He is the only left tackle in the league who has given up one sack with a minimum of 350 pass-blocking snaps, according to Next Gen Stats. He also has a one-on-one win rate of 81.3% — 12th among his position group.

Bolles anchors one of the best offensive lines in the league — one that has allowed the fourth-lowest pressure rate at 27.4%.

At the same time, Bolles is 32 and Denver could use the draft to get younger at left tackle. Payton hasn’t been afraid of moving on from veterans. But If Bolles continues to produce at a high level, it will be difficult to let him walk.

Joseph could be in line for interviews

Denver’s emergence as one of the best defenses in the league could have defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s name featured in the head coaching carousel this offseason.

After the Broncos ranked 30th in yards allowed last season, they jumped up to ninth (315.7) in 2024. Denver was ranked as high as third in total defense before giving up 552 yards against the Browns.

Perhaps the biggest area of improvement is Denver’s pass rush. The Broncos are first in sacks (47) and pressures (212) after finishing 22nd in both categories last year. Players have lauded Joseph’s aggressive scheme because everyone eats. Denver has 12 players with at least one sack, including five with at least five sacks.

Denver’s pass-rush success goes hand-in-hand with the unit’s stout run defense. With the help of new additions up front like defensive linemen John Franklin-Myers and Malcolm Roach, Denver is sixth in rushing yards allowed per game (94.7) and fourth in yards per carry (3.8). In 2023, Denver was 30th in yards allowed per game (137.1) and last in yards per carry (five).

Chicago, New Orleans and the New York Jets have already fired their head coaches. Las Vegas could also open up if the organization moves on from Antonio Pierce, who has guided the Raiders to a 2-10 record in his first full season at the helm.

Joseph’s first crack at being a head coach didn’t go as planned. He went 11-21 in two seasons as the Broncos’ coach before getting fired. However, there have been numerous instances where a team hired a coach after a rough tenure at the previous spot. Perhaps Joseph is the next?

Broncos’ RB rotation too big

Denver’s three running back rotation of Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime has been based on whoever has the hot hand.

McLaughlin has been the most productive out of the three recently, rushing for 128 yards on 21 carries in the last two games. The second-year running back had his best game vs. Cleveland, totaling 84 yards on 14 carries.

Entering the final stretch, the Broncos could lean on McLaughlin and Estime as their one-two punch. Williams has had an up-and-down year, rushing for 446 yards and four touchdowns on 124 carries. He is in the midst of another rough stretch with 59 yards and two touchdowns in the last four games.

He has a success rate (percentage of carries resulting in positive EPA) of 33.1 while averaging 3.6 yards per carry in 13 games, according to Next Gen Stats.

McLaughlin and Estime have each shown positive signs, but they need more opportunities. McLaughlin has 11 explosive runs (attempts for 10-plus yards) — the same number as Williams despite 44 fewer carries. He also has a success rate of 47.5%. In 41 carries, Estime has 191 yards, 4.7 yards per attempt and five explosive runs. He has a success rate of 36.6%.

Vele turning into draft-day steal

The emergence of rookie wideout Devaughn Vele made the Broncos’ decision to waive veteran Josh Reynolds much easier this week.

Vele could go down as one of the draft’s bigger steals. The seventh-round pick has 33 catches for 377 yards (ninth among rookie wide receivers) and a touchdown on 45 targets. He has a passer rating of 105.5 when targeted — third-best among rookie receivers with a minimum of 40 targets, according to Next Gen Stats.

Payton has been impressed with Vele’s ability to catch the ball in traffic. He has 13 receptions for 162 on 16 targets with 1-3 yards of separation. And Nix has a passer rating of 126 when targeting Vele on third down.

Denver’s receiving corps isn’t a finished product. But Courtland Sutton becoming a true No. 1 target and Vele’s productive first season provide optimism moving forward.

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